The April 2025 U.S. jobs report is anticipated to reveal a slowdown in hiring activity, with economists forecasting a modest rise in nonfarm payrolls amid economic uncertainty fueled by newly imposed tariffs. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by just 135,000 jobs in April, down from March’s gain of 228,000 positions. The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2%.

This crucial employment update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday and will be the first labor market snapshot since President Trump announced sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, 2025. Economists and market analysts are closely watching for signs that the tariffs may be beginning to impact job creation.

📉 U.S. Labor Market Forecast – April 2025 (via Bloomberg):

• Nonfarm Payroll Growth: +125,000 vs. +228,000 in March

• Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (unchanged)

• Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): +0.3%

• Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): +3.9%

• Average Weekly Hours Worked: 34.2 hours

While labor market indicators remain relatively stable, economic growth data released earlier this week showed GDP contraction for the first time in three years—an outcome linked to the pre-tariff import surge. Manufacturing sector slowdowns and declining consumer sentiment surveys further highlight the broader impact of U.S. trade policy.

Despite these headwinds, April’s employment data may not yet fully reflect the aftershocks of the tariffs. “Solid April data may feel stale,” wrote Citi economist Veronica Clark, noting that the jobs figures only capture labor market conditions in the first half of the month.

📉 Signs of a Slowing Job Market:

• Weekly jobless claims hit a two-month high

• Ongoing unemployment claims reached levels not seen since November 2021

• Private sector payroll growth underperformed expectations

• U.S. job openings in late March fell to near their lowest since December 2020

According to ADP chief economist Nela Richardson, “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are grappling with mixed economic signals and policy shifts, making it difficult to commit to new hires.”

With markets currently pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed interest rate cut in June, the April employment report could play a pivotal role in shaping future monetary policy.