As the Premier League 2024-25 season nears its climax, the battle for Champions League qualification intensifies. Manchester City’s goalless draw against bottom-placed Southampton has left Pep Guardiola’s side in a precarious position in the Champions League race, with rivals Newcastle United, Chelsea, and Aston Villa closing in fast.

Despite the slip-up, City remain third, but are now just two points clear of Newcastle and Chelsea—both of whom face off on Sunday in a pivotal clash affecting the Premier League top five. Aston Villa added pressure by securing a vital win over Bournemouth, boosting their chances of qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in modern history.

Pep Guardiola acknowledged the challenge ahead, stating: “It’s a fight until the end,” with just two league games remaining—against Bournemouth and Fulham—and the FA Cup final against Crystal Palace still to come.

📊 Premier League Top Four: Who Holds the Edge?

• Only Liverpool have mathematically secured a place in next season’s Champions League.

• Arsenal sit second and are nearly assured of qualification.

• Manchester City, Newcastle, and Chelsea are separated by fine margins.

• Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest remain in contention, albeit as underdogs.

According to Opta:

• Arsenal: 99.7% chance of UCL qualification

• Man City: 91.2%

• Newcastle: 69.4%

• Chelsea: 67.9%

• Nottingham Forest: 37.8%

• Aston Villa: 34.2%

🟣 Aston Villa Clinch European Football for 2025

Villa’s victory over Bournemouth guarantees European football next season. Manager Unai Emery emphasized their ambitions: “The Champions League is the best competition in the world. We’re going to fight for it.”

Villa face two huge fixtures—Tottenham (H) and Manchester United (A)—that could define their Champions League hopes. With Villa’s resurgence and the collapse of traditional top-four certainties, the Premier League top four race remains unpredictable.

🟠 Europa League & Conference League Qualification Scenarios

• The Europa League could feature up to three Premier League teams next season.

• The sixth-placed team and FA Cup winners are currently set to qualify.

• If Chelsea win the UEFA Conference League final vs. Real Betis and finish outside the top five, they’ll claim a Europa League place, shifting other allocations.

🎯 Key Fixtures Remaining

Liverpool: vs Arsenal (H), Brighton (A), Crystal Palace (H)
Arsenal: vs Liverpool (A), Newcastle (H), Southampton (A)
Man City: vs Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
Newcastle: vs Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)
Chelsea: vs Newcastle (A), Man United (H), Nottingham Forest (A)
Aston Villa: vs Tottenham (H), Man United (A)

⚽ Who Will Claim the Final Champions League Spots?

With just weeks left, Premier League fans await a dramatic conclusion. Nine English teams could feature in European competitions next season, with six securing Champions League football if results go their way—including the potential bonus slot awarded via the Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham.