China’s carbon emissions are likely to peak later than previously anticipated, according to a recent survey of climate experts. While global attention remains focused on curbing greenhouse gas emissions, findings suggest that China—the world’s largest emitter—may not reach its emissions peak until near the end of this decade.

Survey Shows Experts Adjust Expectations on China’s Emissions Peak

The fourth edition of China’s Climate Transition Outlook, released on Thursday, reveals that only one in five climate experts believe China’s carbon emissions have already peaked or will peak this year. In contrast, seven in ten experts now predict that China’s emissions will peak by the end of the decade, with 2028 emerging as the most likely peak year according to respondents.

This marks a shift from last year’s survey, in which 44 percent of experts expected emissions to peak in 2025 or earlier. The updated outlook underscores growing concerns about China’s energy consumption patterns and the challenges of transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

About the Survey

The survey was conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies, organizations based in Helsinki, Finland, and Sydney, Australia, respectively. A total of 68 climate analysts participated, including researchers from universities, government agencies, and the energy and sustainable development sectors.

Why China’s Emissions Matter Globally

China’s climate policies are closely monitored worldwide due to its position as the largest single emitter of greenhouse gases. Its efforts—or lack thereof—have significant implications for global climate targets, especially in light of the United States’ temporary withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under former President Donald Trump.

The Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015 by 194 countries and the European Union, seeks to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. China’s policies will play a decisive role in achieving this goal.

China’s Emissions Reduction Targets

In September, China announced that it aims to reduce emissions by 7 to 10 percent from peak levels by 2035, marking the first time the country has committed to an explicit post-peak reduction target. While this represents a major policy milestone, climate experts warn that the target may still fall short of the reductions needed to avert severe climate impacts.

Despite concerns, survey respondents were cautiously optimistic. Over two-thirds of experts said they expected China to “slightly” or “significantly” exceed its emissions reduction goals, signaling that policy implementation and technological advances could accelerate the country’s climate transition.

The Road Ahead for China’s Climate Policy

The survey highlights a nuanced picture of China’s climate trajectory. While progress is being made in reducing emissions intensity and expanding renewable energy capacity, challenges remain in coal dependency, industrial emissions, and urban energy use. Analysts emphasize the need for enhanced policy measures, stricter enforcement, and international cooperation to ensure China’s emissions peak aligns with global climate goals.

China’s climate trajectory will continue to be a focal point in international climate discussions, shaping global strategies to combat climate change and meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.