November 13, 2025 | Patna

As the Bihar Assembly election results 2025 draw near, exit polls released ahead of Friday’s counting have largely projected a victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). While NDA leaders welcomed the forecasts, opposition parties, including the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Jan Suraaj Party, have expressed skepticism, questioning the credibility of these polls.

NDA Leaders Confident

Union Minister Nityanand Rai, speaking to ANI, asserted that the exit polls reflected the people’s endorsement of the NDA government. He expressed confidence that the alliance might win even more seats than projected, citing the influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s governance as key factors in shaping voter sentiment.

“In Bihar, the influence of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s name and work, along with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s wave of good governance, is evident,” Rai said.

Exit Poll Predictions

Various pollsters have issued differing projections, but the consensus leans towards an NDA win:

• Axis My India predicts the NDA securing 121-141 seats in the 243-member Assembly, just above the majority mark of 122, while the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led coalition) could get 98-118 seats. Interestingly, the poll also indicates Tejashwi Yadav as the top choice for chief minister.
• People’s Pulse projects a comfortable NDA win, estimating 133-159 seats for the alliance, 75-101 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, 0-5 for Jan Suraaj, and 2-8 for others.
• Today’s Chanakya anticipates a landslide for the NDA, forecasting 148-172 seats, while Mahagathbandhan may secure 65-89 seats, and other parties 3-9 seats.
• People’s Insight predicts 133-148 seats for the NDA, 87-102 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, 0-2 for Jan Suraaj, and 3-6 for independents.
• JVC Pollster estimates 135-150 seats for the NDA and 88-103 for Mahagathbandhan.

Tejashwi Yadav Questions Projections

RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial candidate, Tejashwi Yadav, rejected the exit poll predictions. He claimed that his party’s internal assessment indicated that the NDA and BJP were “nervous and anxious” due to the voting patterns.

“The NDA is restless because of the kind of voting that took place. People patiently waited to cast their votes, with some standing in queues till 6 or 7 pm. Yet, exit polls started coming out while voting was still ongoing,” Tejashwi said at a press conference.

He urged citizens not to rely solely on poll predictions, asserting that actual results may differ from what pollsters forecast.

Congress Advises Caution

Congress leaders also called for restraint, citing Haryana Assembly elections as an example where exit polls had predicted a landslide for Congress that did not materialize. K C Venugopal, Congress general secretary (organisation), advised voters to “wait for real results” before drawing conclusions.

Meanwhile, Congress MP Digvijaya Singh raised concerns over potential electoral manipulation, alleging that if the NDA wins by more than 140 seats, it could result from manipulated voter lists or EVM tampering.

“When I visited there, it was an equal fight. If the NDA wins by more than 140 seats, it will be due to a manipulated voter list and a manipulated EVM,” Singh claimed.

Stakes and Implications

The exit polls indicate a closely contested battle in Bihar, with the NDA seemingly poised to retain power, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to maintain a strong presence. Analysts note that Bihar’s political landscape has often been dynamic and unpredictable, and historical instances demonstrate that actual results can diverge from exit poll projections.

With the majority mark at 122 seats, every seat counts, and both alliances are preparing for the final vote count on Friday, which will determine the next government in Bihar and the distribution of power between major regional and national parties.

The election outcome is widely seen as a bellwether for national politics, reflecting voter sentiment ahead of upcoming parliamentary contests and influencing strategies for both the NDA and opposition alliances across India.