As Bihar prepares for the counting of votes for its 243-seat assembly on Friday, November 14, exit polls conducted by at least 11 agencies have projected a decisive return for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), placing the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) at a distant second and indicating minimal influence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) in the elections. While exit polls are not definitive, they provide an early snapshot of voter sentiment and electoral trends before the official results are announced.

Exit Polls: Understanding the Projections

Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted with voters immediately after they cast their ballots. They aim to gauge preferences, track regional and demographic trends, and predict potential outcomes. However, their accuracy can vary due to sampling limitations and methodological differences, meaning that actual election results may differ from these projections. Nonetheless, they offer a useful indicator of likely trends and the overall mood of the electorate.

For the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, projections from 11 pollsters overwhelmingly favored the NDA, suggesting a strong return for the ruling coalition led by the BJP and Janata Dal (United) (JDU). Of the 11 agencies, ten forecasted a comfortable victory for the NDA, while only one predicted a close contest between the ruling alliance and the opposition.

Seat Projections by Pollster

Here is a summary of the exit poll projections across the major pollsters:

• Axis My India: NDA 121–141, MGB 98–118, JSP 0–2, Others 1–5
• Today’s Chanakya: NDA 148–172, MGB 65–89, JSP –, Others 3–9
• Matrize: NDA 147–167, MGB 70–90, JSP 0–2, Others 2–5
• P-Marq: NDA 142–162, MGB 80–98, JSP 1–4, Others 0–3
• Peoples Pulse: NDA 133–159, MGB 75–101, JSP 0–5, Others 2–8
• Bhaskar: NDA 145–160, MGB 73–91, JSP –, Others 5–10
• People’s Insight: NDA 133–148, MGB 87–102, JSP 0–2, Others 3–6
• JVC: NDA 135–150, MGB 88–103, JSP –, Others 3–7
• Polstrat: NDA 133–148, MGB 87–102, JSP –, Others 3–5
• Poll Diary: NDA 184–209, MGB 32–49, JSP –, Others 1–5
• Vote Vibe: NDA 125–145, MGB 95–115, JSP 0–2, Others 1–3

Poll Diary projected the highest number of seats for the NDA (184–209), while Axis My India estimated the lowest range (121–141). For the Mahagathbandhan, Axis My India projected the highest seat count (98–118), while Poll Diary suggested a minimal outcome (32–49). Most pollsters predicted that the Jan Suraaj Party would have little to no impact, with seat projections ranging from zero to five.

Factors Influencing NDA’s Projected Lead

The NDA’s apparent advantage can be attributed to multiple factors. The alliance leveraged Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 11-year tenure at the Centre and Nitish Kumar’s 20-year rule in Bihar, emphasizing continuity and governance experience. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising primarily the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), focused on anti-incumbency and raised issues of corruption and governance failures. The opposition’s promises included government jobs, interest waivers for self-help women’s groups, a law to curb exam paper leaks, and monthly financial aid for women.

Regional and Demographic Trends

While the NDA is projected to perform strongly statewide, regional variations remain. Seemanchal, traditionally a Mahagathbandhan stronghold, appears to be the only region where the opposition alliance could outperform the NDA. For instance, Axis My India forecast 15 seats for the MGB in Seemanchal, compared to eight for the NDA.

Other demographic analyses indicate that the ruling alliance performed decisively across most regions, with exit polls suggesting robust support among urban voters, backward classes, and sections of the rural electorate. The NDA’s coalition strategy and alliance-building seem to have reinforced its statewide appeal.

Preferred Chief Minister: A Surprising Twist

Although the NDA is projected to secure a majority of seats, the survey of voters’ preferred chief minister presented a notable contrast. Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD emerged as a more popular choice among respondents than incumbent Nitish Kumar in most surveys. Axis My India recorded a 34% preference for Tejashwi, compared to 22% for Nitish. Similarly, Peoples Pulse showed a 32% preference for Tejashwi against 30% for Nitish. This indicates that while voters may favor the NDA for governance stability, Tejashwi retains personal appeal, particularly among younger and aspirational voters.

Jan Suraaj Party’s Performance

The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, was anticipated by many analysts to emerge as a significant force in Bihar. However, exit poll projections suggest that JSP has failed to make a substantial impact. Most pollsters estimated zero to five seats for the party, reflecting its limited penetration and inability to sway key voter segments effectively. The party’s performance highlights the challenges new entrants face in breaking through established political equations in the state.

Key Takeaways

1. NDA’s Strong Return: Ten of eleven pollsters forecast a clear NDA victory, with projections ranging from a comfortable to a sweeping majority.
2. Regional Variation: While NDA dominates most regions, Seemanchal remains a Mahagathbandhan bastion.
3. Preferred CM Divergence: Tejashwi Yadav emerges as a more popular chief ministerial candidate than Nitish Kumar despite NDA’s projected lead.
4. JSP’s Marginal Role: The Jan Suraaj Party fails to gain traction, indicating limited voter appeal.
5. Political Messaging Matters: NDA’s emphasis on governance experience and continuity appears to resonate more strongly than Mahagathbandhan’s anti-incumbency narrative.

Conclusion

As Bihar waits for the official results on November 14, exit polls provide a preliminary sense of direction, pointing towards an NDA return to power, a Mahagathbandhan trailing behind, and minimal influence of the Jan Suraaj Party. While the final outcome may differ, these projections highlight current voter trends, regional variations, and the complex interplay between party allegiance and individual leadership preferences. The official counting of votes will ultimately confirm the mandate of the people and determine the political landscape of Bihar for the next five years.