The Nigerian Federal Government’s declaration that its ambitious economic reforms have successfully “turned the corner” is facing fierce contradiction from a broad coalition of economists, business leaders, and analysts. While the government points to positive macroeconomic data, a Vanguard investigation reveals a deep consensus that these gains are not translating into relief for citizens and industries, creating a stark divide between statistical recovery and lived experience.

For the past two-and-a-half years, the administration of President Bola Tinubu has pursued aggressive reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates. The government recently gave itself an excellent mark, citing improving GDP, slowing inflation, a stable exchange rate, and rising foreign reserves as evidence that the economy is on a sound path.

However, findings from a wide range of stakeholders indicate a far more troubled and complex reality. The overarching sentiment is that the economy may look healthier on official charts, but it remains deeply unwell in the homes and marketplaces of ordinary Nigerians.

The Chorus of Concern: “Progress on Paper Only”

Critics have identified several key pain points where the government’s narrative falls short:

• An Illusory Recovery: Dr. Andrew Mamedu, Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, asserted that the progress is “largely on paper.” He warned that while border openings have temporarily lowered food prices, they are crippling local farmers who are selling at a loss, setting the stage for future food scarcity.
• Stability Without Prosperity: Prof. Magnus Kpakol, a former government economic adviser, delivered a scathing assessment. “Stability is not enough. We need performance,” he stated, describing Nigeria’s economic situation as “very embarrassing” and accusing the government of “arrogance” for celebrating modest gains while poverty deepens.
• The Paradox of Reform: Dr. Amase Justin, an economist and CEO of Macrostrat Nigeria Ltd., detailed the “paradoxes” of the reforms. He noted that while GDP grows, Nigeria has fallen to fourth place in Africa’s economic rankings due to currency devaluation. He also highlighted that national debt continues to climb despite improved revenues, and gains have yet to translate into better welfare for citizens.
• The Debt Trap and Household Struggle: Financial analyst David Adonri flatly rejected the government’s claim, noting that with double-digit inflation and interest rates, and the government still borrowing to service debts, “it is premature for anyone to claim that the economy has turned the corner.” Public policy analyst Clifford Egbomeade echoed this, stating, “The economy looks healthier in charts than it feels in Nigerian households,” pointing to the soaring costs of staple goods like rice and petrol.

A Glimmer of Cautious Optimism

Despite the overwhelming criticism, a minority of stakeholders see a foundation for future success, albeit with significant caveats.

Segun Ajayi-Kadir, Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), acknowledged that the “stabilisation path has been cleared,” but insisted the focus must now shift to “accelerated growth” with manufacturing at its core.

Similarly, Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, called the reforms “promising, but not yet fully effective.” He emphasized that credibility will only be achieved when small businesses feel tangible relief through lower inflation and accessible credit.

The Path Forward: From Stabilization to Inclusive Growth

The experts collectively outlined a clear path for the government to bridge the gap between data and reality. Key recommendations include:

1. Prioritize Social Protection: Redirect savings from subsidy removal into robust, transparent social safety nets and investments in public services to cushion vulnerable citizens.
2. Empower Local Production: Secure farming communities, provide affordable credit to farmers and SMEs, and protect local industries from being undermined by imports.
3. Focus on Job-Creating Sectors: Shift focus from general GDP growth to targeted support for sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and renewable energy that create mass employment.
4. Tackle Structural Bottlenecks: Urgently address the fundamental issues of insecurity, unreliable power supply, and costly logistics that stifle productivity.