As negotiators gather for a crucial week at COP30 in Belém, located in Brazil’s Amazon region, the global climate process faces a mix of urgency, unresolved tensions, and cautious optimism. With several high-stakes agenda items still awaiting resolution, the coming days may prove decisive for the full-scale implementation of the Paris Agreement a decade after its adoption. The Presidency of the summit, led by André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, has confirmed that a detailed summary of countries’ views on four major pending issues will be published today, a document likely to shape the draft cover decision of COP30.

The summit has entered a pivotal phase with both on-agenda and off-agenda matters still in contention. Among these, the Global Goal on Adaptation and the Just Transition Work Programme remain foremost. These two components are central to the long-term structure of international climate governance, yet they highlight the persistent divide between developed and developing nations. Delegates from across the world have expressed concern that without resolving these issues, the Paris Agreement’s implementation cycle cannot move into its next, more ambitious phase.

Four unresolved matters have been placed under the Presidency’s consultations, with hopes that today’s publication will bring clarity. First among them is Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, a foundational clause that mandates developed countries to provide financial resources to assist developing countries with mitigation and adaptation efforts. This issue, pushed strongly by India and the broader developing world, has seen slow progress, largely because of the deep-seated North–South disagreements on climate finance responsibilities. Developing nations argue that they continue to bear the brunt of climate impacts despite contributing the least historically to global emissions, and therefore require predictable, scaled-up climate finance to meet escalating adaptation and transition costs.

The second unresolved matter involves concerns over unilateral trade measures implemented for climate reasons. Many developing countries view climate-linked trade restrictions or carbon border adjustment mechanisms as a form of disguised protectionism. These concerns have grown louder as richer nations attempt to impose standards that poorer economies fear will disproportionately harm their manufacturing, export sectors, and development priorities.

The remaining two issues under consultation deal with the overarching ambition of the Paris Agreement. One is the response to the status report on nationally determined contributions (NDCs), particularly addressing the widening gap between current emissions trajectories and the 1.5°C limit. The world is predicted to breach this temperature threshold by the early 2030s, which has added urgency to calls for enhanced ambition. Small island developing states and the European Union have pushed for stronger language requiring countries to revisit and upgrade their NDCs before the next formal cycle. The second issue pertains to transparency frameworks under Article 13, including the synthesis of biennial transparency reports. Developed countries and vulnerable nations consider transparent reporting essential for building trust and verifying progress, while some developing nations argue that technical and financial constraints limit their reporting capacities.

To bridge these persistent divides, Lago has encouraged delegates to deliberate on three broad themes. The first centres on celebrating the ten-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement, an opportunity for countries to reflect on achievements and shortcomings. The second theme, moving from negotiations to implementation, stresses that the Paris Agreement’s policy cycle is now fully activated and that incremental progress is no longer sufficient. The third theme highlights the need to respond to urgency with solidarity and international cooperation. According to the Presidency, the summary of national positions to be released today will draw from these discussions and help structure the drafting of the final COP30 decision.

Lago acknowledged the rich exchange of ideas shared by parties over the past two days, noting that discussions were intentionally held without prejudging outcomes. The Presidency has emphasized the importance of the positive spirit demonstrated in Belém and urged negotiators to continue working collaboratively to find solutions. According to the Presidency’s figures, 116 NDCs have already been updated for the 2035 time horizon, signalling momentum but also underscoring the need for stronger global alignment.

Climate scientists and advocacy groups have issued strong warnings about the stakes of this moment. Rachel Cleetus, senior director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, stated that COP30 must deliver an outcome that openly acknowledges the global ambition shortfall and establishes an actionable pathway for countries to voluntarily revisit and revise their NDCs ahead of schedule. With the 1.5°C target in jeopardy, she argued that there is no room for complacency or further delays.

Beyond negotiating rooms, public pressure for climate action intensified over the weekend. Thousands of people across 27 countries participated in the November 15 Global Day of Action organized by the Peoples’ Summit. More than 100 marches, demonstrations, and advocacy events highlighted widespread concern about the pace and direction of global climate efforts. Civil society groups in Belém and around the world echoed the demands for meaningful progress on climate finance, fossil fuel phase-out pathways, and climate justice.

Observers have noted that while the COP30 agenda was adopted without contestation in the opening week, the lack of concrete progress on some of the most contentious items remains a challenge. According to Rudrath Avinashi, a programme officer for Climate Change at the Centre for Science and Environment, the relocation of two critical issues—Article 9.1 implementation and unilateral trade measures—to presidential consultations has not yet yielded tangible outcomes. He added that the Just Transition Work Programme has exposed clear North–South fault lines, including disagreements on references to transitioning away from fossil fuels and the role of trade measures in facilitating or impeding this transition.

Similarly, negotiations on the Global Goal on Adaptation have run into deep divides, particularly around indicators tied to the means of implementation, such as finance and technology. Developing countries have repeatedly argued that meaningful adaptation targets cannot be met without guaranteed financial support, while developed countries have been hesitant to commit to open-ended obligations.

As COP30 moves deeper into its second week, today’s publication of countries’ positions may set the tone for whether Belém can achieve a breakthrough or merely mark another incremental step in the long journey of global climate negotiations. The persistent gaps between rich and developing nations—over finance, fairness, ambition, and historical responsibility—remain at the centre of the debate. Whether the coming days bring convergence or further stalemate may determine how strongly the world responds to the rapidly closing window for climate action.