TOKYO, November 16, 2025 – A recent Kyodo News survey shows that the Japanese public remains divided over whether Japan should exercise its right to collective self-defense in the event of a Chinese military attack on Taiwan. The poll, released Sunday, found that 48.8% of respondents supported a military response, while 44.2% opposed it, highlighting a nation grappling with the security challenges posed by regional tensions.

Strong Support for Increased Defence Spending

While opinions on military intervention remain split, the poll revealed broad support for boosting Japan’s defense capabilities. A notable 60.4% of respondents backed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plan to increase Japan’s defense budget, reflecting public concern over regional security threats.

Prime Minister Takaichi has pledged to accelerate Japan’s defense spending to 2% of GDP in the current fiscal year ending March, ahead of the original 2027 target. The plan aims to strengthen Japan’s military readiness in the face of China-Taiwan tensions and growing geopolitical uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region.

Diplomatic Tensions with China

The poll comes amid escalating diplomatic friction between Tokyo and Beijing, following remarks by Takaichi on November 7. The Japanese premier warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan and might necessitate a military response under the principle of collective self-defense.

Beijing reacted strongly to the statements, issuing warnings to Chinese citizens against traveling to Japan and reiterating its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty. Taiwan, which is only 110 kilometers (70 miles) from Japanese territory, remains steadfast in rejecting China’s sovereignty claims.

Rising Approval Ratings for Takaichi

The Kyodo poll also highlighted rising approval for Prime Minister Takaichi’s leadership, with her cabinet’s approval rating reaching 69.9%, up 5.5 points from the previous month. This indicates growing public confidence in her security and defense policies, even as opinions on direct military action remain polarized.

Implications for Japan’s Security Policy

Japan’s security stance is being closely watched as tensions over Taiwan continue to simmer. Analysts note that Japan’s defense modernization efforts, including expanding military capabilities and budget allocations, are designed to deter regional threats while maintaining strategic alliances with partners such as the United States.

With China not ruling out the use of force to assert its claims over Taiwan, Japanese policymakers face increasing pressure to balance defense readiness with diplomatic engagement to avoid escalation in the region.

Looking Ahead

As cross-strait tensions evolve, public opinion in Japan will likely continue to influence defense and foreign policy decisions. The split in public sentiment underscores the complex challenges faced by Tokyo as it navigates security concerns amid growing uncertainty in East Asia.