The opposition INDIA bloc in Bihar appears to be unraveling just weeks before the crucial state assembly elections, as deepening divisions over seat-sharing have pushed the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) into open discord. The Congress on Thursday night released a list of 48 candidates for the first phase of polls—without the consent of its key ally RJD—exposing the fragile underpinnings of the alliance that was built to challenge the ruling NDA.

The development, coming mere hours before Friday’s deadline for filing nominations for the first phase covering 121 constituencies scheduled for November 6, underscores the internal chaos within the opposition front. It also coincides with another major blow to the coalition—Pasupati Kumar Paras’s Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) announced its exit from the INDIA bloc, accusing the alliance of “betrayal” and forging a new tie-up with the AIMIM to contest independently in the Seemanchal and Magadh regions.

The seat-sharing dispute has been simmering for weeks, with the Congress and RJD unable to agree on the number and distribution of constituencies. The Congress, which had contested 70 seats in the 2020 elections and won 19, had sought at least 61 this time, but the RJD remained firm on limiting its junior partner’s share. In the end, the Congress high command decided to bypass the deadlock and unilaterally declare candidates for 48 constituencies, a move seen by insiders as a desperate attempt to assert control amid RJD’s growing dominance in the alliance.

Senior Bihar Congress leaders said the decision came after repeated failures of the Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee (BPCC) to conclude negotiations. “The AICC had to step in because our state unit couldn’t navigate RJD’s intransigence,” a senior party source told Hindustan Times. The list, released by AICC general secretary KC Venugopal, prioritizes constituencies where Congress has a viable presence, particularly in areas with high populations of Scheduled Castes, Extremely Backward Classes, and migrant labor communities.

The first-phase list includes a mix of veterans and new entrants, such as Jayesh Mangal Singh (Bagaha), Abhishek Ranjan (Chanpatia), Shyam Bihari Prasad (Raxaul), Amita Bhushan (Begusarai), Ajit Kumar Sharma (Bhagalpur), and Kaushlendra Kumar “Chhote Mukhiya” (Nalanda). Many of these constituencies—like Bettiah, Khagaria, Begusarai, and Bhagalpur—have historically witnessed close contests and were chosen for their strategic voter compositions.

However, glaring omissions from the list—particularly Maharajganj, Jale, and Narkatiaganj—suggest unresolved disputes with the RJD. These seats are politically sensitive, and RJD insists they belong within its traditional domain. RJD spokespersons have responded sharply to Congress’s unilateral move. “We have waited long enough; these are our seats by right,” one said, warning of “retaliatory announcements” of its own candidates.

Sources say that RJD is also eyeing Kahalgaon in Bhagalpur district, which it considers one of its core strongholds given its Yadav-Muslim voter base. The Congress, meanwhile, is adamant about retaining it, as it remains one of its few winnable bastions in the region.

The alliance turmoil has also alienated smaller allies like Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), which was allocated just 15 seats after demanding 25–30. “This is feudal bargaining by larger allies,” Sahni remarked, announcing that he would contest from Gaur Boram (Darbhanga). VIP’s dissatisfaction adds another layer of instability to the coalition.

Even the Left parties, integral to the bloc’s 2020 success in several constituencies, have expressed anger over being sidelined in negotiations. CPI(ML) and CPI(M) leaders have privately conveyed frustration that their demand for 15–20 seats was ignored. “The Congress and RJD must remember 2020—without the Left, their vote transfer won’t work,” a Left leader said.

Meanwhile, RLJP’s exit has sent shockwaves through the bloc. Paras accused the alliance of “betrayal and arrogance” in seat-sharing talks and announced his decision to ally with AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi. The new partnership aims to contest 20–25 seats, primarily in Seemanchal, which could split the minority vote—a critical factor that has historically benefited RJD and Congress. Political analysts warn that the RLJP-AIMIM tie-up may inflict serious damage on the INDIA bloc’s prospects in eastern Bihar.

Within Congress, the internal rift between state leaders and the central leadership has also deepened. Local leaders allege that the AICC’s last-minute takeover of talks alienated state workers who had been lobbying for specific constituencies. “The Delhi leadership doesn’t understand Bihar’s ground realities,” one BPCC member said, adding that hurried decisions risk alienating cadres who fought hard in 2020.

In the midst of the chaos, senior leaders from both RJD and Congress are scrambling to contain the fallout. Tejashwi Yadav, RJD’s chief strategist and son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, is reportedly traveling to Delhi to meet Rahul Gandhi in an attempt to defuse tensions. A Congress observer close to the talks remarked, “Unity is our only weapon; discord is Nitish’s delight.”

However, the optics remain bleak. With nominations for the first phase closing and multiple allies threatening rebellion or defection, the INDIA bloc’s unity—once touted as the opposition’s greatest strength—is now its biggest vulnerability. The episode highlights the enduring fragility of pre-poll coalitions in Indian politics, particularly when dominated by powerful regional parties unwilling to concede ground.

For now, the Congress continues to project confidence, arguing that its candidate list demonstrates resolve and readiness. Yet the absence of coordination with RJD and the exit of key partners point to a bloc that is fractured and struggling to stay afloat under pressure.