New Delhi, November 20, 2025: India’s escalating heatwaves are not just a matter of rising temperatures and public discomfort—they are increasingly shaping the country’s energy landscape, driving up electricity demand and reinforcing the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels, a new study has warned. Released on Thursday, the report titled Breaking the Cycle, a joint publication by Climate Trends and Climate Compatible Futures, highlights the urgent need for investment in renewable energy storage, smart grids, and climate-resilient electricity infrastructure to avoid what the authors term a “heat-power trap.”

The study points to a clear and alarming correlation between record-breaking summer heat and electricity consumption. Across the past decade, the number of days with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius has risen sharply, with 14 Indian states recording an average increase of 15 percent in summer heat intensity between 2015 and 2024. India’s annual average temperature in 2024 was 0.65 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 baseline, underscoring the intensifying nature of heat stress in both urban and rural regions.

As temperatures soar, electricity demand rises in tandem, largely driven by the need for cooling. The report notes that during April-June 2024, heatwave conditions alone contributed nearly a nine percent increase in India’s peak power demand, adding 327 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Over the past decade, fossil fuel-based power generation during summer months has accounted for approximately 2.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions, highlighting the climate feedback loop that links extreme heat, energy demand, and carbon emissions.

“Rising temperatures have consistently increased electricity demand, predominantly for cooling needs, resulting in further dependence on fossil fuels,” said Dr. Manish Ram, CEO of Climate Compatible Futures. “Meeting the summer demand surge with fossil fuels has worsened emissions and air pollution. It is imperative that we break this cycle to avoid disproportionately impacting vulnerable communities, particularly those in rural areas and low-income households who face compounded risks.”

Despite significant growth in renewable energy capacity, fossil fuels remain the backbone of India’s electricity system. The country’s renewable generation capacity has increased from 84 GW in 2015 to 209 GW in 2024, reflecting an over 121 percent growth. However, coal and other fossil-based power sources continue to dominate, with capacity expanding from 195 GW to 243 GW over the same period. While renewable output has surged, fossil-fuel-based generation still grew by 50 percent, reflecting the enduring challenge of displacing conventional energy sources in the face of rapidly rising demand.

The report emphasizes that the regions most affected by heatwaves are experiencing the greatest stress on their electricity grids. Central and eastern states, including Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, recorded an average of 50 heatwave days annually between 2014 and 2024. Northern states such as Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana witnessed the sharpest rise in summer temperatures, further intensifying the need for cooling and grid support.

The warming trend is also expanding to areas historically considered moderate. Uttarakhand, for instance, recorded zero heatwave days in 2023, which jumped to 25 in 2024, accompanied by an 11.2 percent increase in summer temperatures. Similarly, Ladakh saw a 9.1 percent rise, indicating that even high-altitude regions are increasingly vulnerable to heat-induced energy demand surges.

The “heat-power feedback loop” identified in the study is particularly concerning for rural and low-income populations. These communities face multiple layers of vulnerability: limited access to reliable electricity, inadequate cooling options, and poor infrastructure resilience. As a result, heat stress and energy supply disruptions hit these populations hardest, exacerbating existing socioeconomic disparities.

Dr. Ram emphasized the importance of targeted interventions, stating that states facing heat-driven spikes in electricity demand must urgently expand renewable energy capacity and storage solutions. “Even states with high renewable penetration are beginning to encounter the limitations of solar and wind integration without adequate storage or flexible grid systems. We need a systems-level approach that combines renewable expansion with smart grid management and energy storage solutions to mitigate climate risks effectively,” he explained.

Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, reinforced the urgency of coordinated action. “Heatwaves and power shortages can no longer be treated as separate crises,” she said. “The only durable solution is to upgrade our grid infrastructure, invest in storage, and enable flexible, climate-resilient electricity systems. Without these investments, every summer will lock India deeper into fossil-fuel dependence, worsening public health impacts and economic disruption. Breaking this cycle is an equity imperative.”

The study also examined existing Heat Action Plans (HAPs) across India and identified critical gaps. Currently, only four states, three cities, and a single district incorporate renewable energy-based backup systems, such as solar power or battery storage, into their heat preparedness frameworks. This gap highlights the need for an integrated approach that links energy planning with climate adaptation measures, including renewable backup systems, demand forecasting, urban cooling strategies, and grid modernization.

According to the report, timely investments in energy storage and grid flexibility could also help reduce future reliance on coal and other fossil fuels. Citing recent studies by Ember and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the report notes that India could avoid new coal expansion if it meets its 2032 renewable energy capacity targets and adds 50 GW of renewable capacity annually through 2035. Peak coal generation could simultaneously decline, allowing India to achieve energy security while mitigating climate impacts.

The report’s findings carry significant policy implications. By highlighting the feedback loop between rising temperatures and fossil fuel dependence, the authors stress the importance of combining climate adaptation with energy sector reform. Expanding renewable energy alone is insufficient; storage, smart grids, and flexible demand management must be part of a holistic strategy. Without these measures, heatwave-driven electricity demand will continue to exacerbate carbon emissions, air pollution, and climate vulnerability, particularly for marginalized populations.

In conclusion, Breaking the Cycle underscores the urgent need for India to rethink its approach to energy, climate resilience, and equity. Heatwaves are no longer isolated weather events—they are shaping the nation’s electricity demand, straining grids, and reinforcing fossil fuel dependence. Investments in renewable energy storage, grid modernization, and climate-resilient energy systems are essential to break this cycle, protect vulnerable populations, and secure a sustainable energy future for India. As the country confronts rising temperatures and increasing electricity demand, coordinated action across government, industry, and communities will determine whether India can meet its energy needs while reducing its carbon footprint and ensuring climate resilience.

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