At the 23rd Hindustan Times Leadership Summit (HTLS) 2025, Edward Luce—chief US commentator at the Financial Times—offered a sweeping and sobering assessment of the world’s most powerful political office and the man currently occupying it. In a wide-ranging conversation with journalist Kaveree Bamzai, Luce argued that President Donald Trump’s foreign policy cannot be explained through any conventional framework. Rather than a coherent strategy, he said, it reflects the instincts, impulses, and financial motivations of the president and the individuals surrounding him.

Luce set the stage by stating outright that the global order is undergoing profound and unprecedented upheaval—and that Trump sits at the centre of this disruption. During his second term, he has rapidly dismantled long-standing domestic and international norms, replacing them with a style of governance that Luce described as highly personalised, unpredictable, and often transactional. According to him, Trump is not merely rewriting policy; he is reshaping the very architecture of how the United States engages with the world.

A Foreign Policy Without a Framework

One of Luce’s central arguments was that it is misguided to attempt to discern a coherent “Trump doctrine.” Any attempt to map out a logical sequence or ideological throughline, he contended, will be rendered obsolete almost immediately. “There isn’t really a Trump foreign policy strategy—it’s the wrong word,” Luce said. Calling efforts to analyse Trump’s decisions a kind of “sanewashing,” he argued that the president’s actions are reactive, opportunistic, and rooted in personal and financial interests rather than national or geopolitical calculations.

He pointed out that Trump gravitates toward countries where rules-based systems are weak or malleable, enabling the possibility of private deals—particularly those benefiting people in Trump’s inner orbit, including his children or politically appointed envoys such as Steve Witkoff or Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. In contrast, Trump tends to chafe against democracies with institutional checks, transparency requirements, and established protocols.

“For example,” Luce said, “you’ll see him getting along better with Pakistan than with India, because India is still a rules-based system.” He extended this pattern to Trump’s warmer ties with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE compared to strained relationships with Canada, Britain, or France. The underlying principle, he said, is not ideology but transactional accessibility.

A White House Defined by Chaos and Loyalty

Luce also described the internal functioning of Trump’s administration as deeply hierarchical but volatile. He likened the White House to a pyramid structure with Trump perched at the apex, demanding absolute personal loyalty from everyone below him. This, Luce argued, explains the rapid turnover in senior positions, the sidelining of institutional expertise, and the prioritisation of loyalists over technocrats.

He emphasised that Trump wields extraordinary control over Washington’s political narrative. “Trump causes the reaction; Trump controls the narrative,” he said. The president’s dominance over the news cycle gives him “escalation dominance,” ensuring that political discourse moves at his pace and on his terms—a dynamic Luce refers to as “Trumpistan.”

For a country that has long prided itself on federal checks and balances and a robust democratic ethos, this centralisation of power in the hands of one individual, he said, is a “strange and new thing.”

Domestic Overhaul: Federal Workforce, Immigration, Economy

Turning to domestic policy, Luce detailed how Trump’s second term has dramatically reshaped American governance. He has slashed federal jobs across departments, severely restricted immigration, empowered law enforcement agencies to aggressively pursue undocumented migrants, reversed climate-related reforms, weakened renewable energy commitments, and instituted sweeping tax and healthcare policy changes. These actions, Luce argued, reflect Trump’s efforts to consolidate support among his MAGA (Make America Great Again) base while dismantling much of the Biden-era framework.

Global Impact: Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Relationships in Flux

On the international stage, Trump’s impact has been equally dramatic. He has issued a barrage of tariffs, disrupted global supply chains, and exerted pressure on allies and adversaries alike. Luce noted that Trump has publicly lobbied for the Nobel Peace Prize while simultaneously stoking trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.

However, Trump’s attempts to influence two key global players—China and Russia—have largely failed, Luce argued. Beijing has undermined his tariffs by leveraging its dominance over rare earth minerals, which Luce described as “a bigger bazooka.” Moscow, meanwhile, has eluded Trump’s attempts to shape the Ukraine conflict. The real consequence, Luce said, is that Trump’s actions have inadvertently pushed China and Russia into closer strategic alignment.

“The first rule of geopolitics,” Luce said, “is that you don’t push all your enemies together.” By alienating traditional allies while applying pressure on adversaries, Trump risks creating a consolidated anti-American bloc—a development that could inflict long-term damage on US influence.

According to Luce, this combination of unpredictability, unilateralism, and transactional foreign relations has reduced America’s leverage, diminished its soft power, driven up the costs of international cooperation, and created space for other nations to form alternative alliances.

The Rise of the MAGA Hard Right

Luce also addressed the cultural and ideological transformations occurring within American politics. He highlighted the troubling emergence of figures like Nick Fuentes—a white nationalist known for openly racist and antisemitic rhetoric—who is gaining influence within certain far-right circles. Luce noted that while Fuentes was once considered too extreme even for many on the MAGA right, the movement’s rhetoric has grown so exclusionary that the boundaries of what is “acceptable” have shifted dangerously.

He argued that older Republicans, who once believed they could harness Trump’s populist energy while maintaining institutional control, have now “created a monster” they can no longer contain. In Luce’s view, Vice-President JD Vance is positioning himself as the heir to this newly emboldened and radicalised MAGA movement.

A Potential Democratic Resurgence

Despite the challenges facing the Democratic Party, Luce suggested that signs of revival are emerging. A series of electoral victories across states such as Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, Pennsylvania, California, and the high-profile campaign of Zohran Mamdani in New York have provided the party with momentum. Luce believes the Democrats’ time “in the wilderness” may be nearing its end as a crowded field prepares to challenge Trumpism in 2028.

A World in Transition

In total, Luce’s assessment presents a world grappling with uncertainty, driven in part by a White House that defies established norms. Trump’s foreign policy—if it can be called that—is not rooted in doctrine but in instinct, opportunity, and personal benefit. The ramifications, he warned, are profound: a fractured international order, weakened alliances, empowered adversaries, and a troubling shift in America’s political identity.

For now, he concluded, the world must navigate a landscape shaped by volatility—one where patterns are fleeting, alliances are transactional, and global stability hinges on forces that defy prediction.