New Delhi – The responsibility for restoring the goodwill lost between India and the United States amid a downturn in bilateral relations rests primarily with Washington, while the loss of trust presents an opportunity for Europe, leading geopolitical experts said at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit (HTLS) 2025 on Saturday.

Speaking at the summit, Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, argued that trade has historically been the “core lens” through which the US administration evaluates its diplomatic relations. He noted that President Donald Trump had consistently expressed concerns over Indian tariffs and economic policies, singling out India as a significant offender in a manner that strained relations. According to Kugelman, the Trump administration’s approach “squandered a fair amount of trust and goodwill” that India had extended, and Washington now bears the onus of rebuilding that trust.

“If we look at how the US-India relationship reached a point of crisis, we have to start at the fact that the Trump administration has singled out India as a core offender when it comes to countries that have economic policies that can undercut America’s own economic interests,” Kugelman said. He added that while India and the US continued to engage in defense and strategic areas, including joint military exercises and the signing of a 10-year defense framework agreement, the damage to trust had been significant. “I think the onus, quite frankly, might be on the US to try to do what needs to be done to win back some of that goodwill,” he said.

Kate Sullivan de Estrada, associate professor of international relations of South Asia at Oxford University, underscored that the erosion of trust between India and the US has created openings for Europe. “The loss of trust between India and the US is a sort of a win for Europe,” she said, noting that the European Union (EU), which is negotiating a free trade agreement with India, has the potential to expand its engagement in areas such as biotechnology, renewable energy, and quantum computing.

However, Sullivan de Estrada cautioned that both India and the EU remain careful in their engagement, given their respective concerns with China and the perception of an increasingly unreliable partner in the US. She explained that while Europe approaches trade agreements in a holistic manner—incorporating elements such as climate protection, social safeguards, and labor standards—India often perceives these expectations as protectionist. “The problem with Europe and India is that the EU tends to approach agreements with partners in a way that goes beyond trade policy [and] pure trade. There are these sort of expectations of agreements…that reach into things like climate protection, social protections, and these feel in a way protectionist from an Indian point of view,” she said.

Kugelman also discussed regional security concerns, particularly the volatile situation involving Pakistan and Afghanistan. He warned of the potential for conflict in South Asia, describing a scenario that may not constitute a conventional war but would involve proxy and targeted strikes. “I think that South Asia’s next war might be between Afghanistan and Pakistan. What that could entail is not a conventional war – the Taliban cannot fight the Pakistani military – but rather Pakistan carrying out strikes in Afghanistan to target terrorists and then the Taliban sponsoring militant attacks across Pakistan,” he said.

The insights offered by both experts at HTLS 2025 highlighted the broader geopolitical dynamics affecting India-US relations, trade negotiations, and regional security. Kugelman and Sullivan de Estrada emphasized that while bilateral strategic cooperation in areas such as defense remains robust, economic policies and diplomatic rhetoric have significantly influenced trust between the two countries.

Kugelman’s observations reinforced the view that trade remains a decisive lens in US foreign policy toward India. The Trump administration’s focus on Indian tariffs, perceived protectionist measures, and disputes over market access contributed to a deterioration in trust. While India continues to value strategic partnerships in defense, counterterrorism, and regional security, the experts underscored that rebuilding goodwill would require sustained diplomatic engagement, policy recalibration, and recognition of India’s growing global influence.

Sullivan de Estrada’s comments pointed to Europe as a potential beneficiary of the trust deficit between India and the US. The EU’s ongoing free trade negotiations with India could allow Europe to strengthen its bilateral relationship in both economic and technological spheres. Yet, she noted, India’s approach to such agreements is cautious, especially when non-economic conditions are attached. The balancing act India faces—between engaging the EU, maintaining strategic ties with the US, and managing regional security challenges—is emblematic of its increasingly complex global positioning.

Both experts stressed that South Asia remains a highly sensitive region with potential flashpoints that extend beyond conventional warfare. Kugelman’s warnings regarding Pakistan and Afghanistan highlighted the ongoing risks of asymmetric conflict and proxy engagements. This adds urgency to India’s strategic partnerships, emphasizing the need for careful diplomacy and robust regional security mechanisms to prevent escalation and ensure stability.

The discussions at HTLS 2025 served as a reminder that economic considerations, trust deficits, and regional dynamics are deeply intertwined in shaping India’s foreign policy. The summit underscored that while strategic cooperation continues, the erosion of goodwill requires deliberate efforts from Washington to re-establish trust and credibility. At the same time, Europe’s growing role as a trade and technology partner for India indicates a shifting balance in the geopolitical landscape, one that could influence the trajectory of India’s international engagements in the coming years.

In conclusion, the expert analysis at HTLS 2025 highlighted the consequences of the Trump administration’s policies on India-US relations and pointed to both challenges and opportunities in the global arena. While bilateral defense and strategic ties remain intact, rebuilding economic trust with India is imperative for the US, and Europe may leverage this opening to strengthen its own relationship with India. Meanwhile, South Asia’s security environment remains complex, necessitating careful navigation of both traditional and non-traditional threats to maintain regional stability and protect national interests.