The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has cautioned that the global aircraft supply chain may not fully recover until 2031–2034, citing years of delivery delays and an unprecedented backlog of orders straining airlines worldwide.

IATA’s latest global outlook notes that while aircraft deliveries began to recover in late 2025, production is expected to accelerate in 2026. However, demand is projected to continue outpacing supply, creating a structural mismatch unlikely to normalize for nearly a decade.

Key points from the report:

• Backlog of over 17,000 aircraft, equivalent to nearly 12 years of production, far above the historical norm of 30–40% of the active global fleet.
• Delivery shortfalls have reached at least 5,300 aircraft, forcing airlines to extend the operational life of older planes.
• Average fleet age stands at 15.1 years overall, with 12.8 years for passenger aircraft and nearly 20 years for cargo fleets.
• Despite the shortage, over 5,000 aircraft remain in storage, highlighting ongoing inefficiencies in the supply chain.

IATA emphasizes that the availability of aircraft remains a major constraint on industry growth, and the mismatch between airline demand and production capacity will continue to challenge airlines for years to come.