The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reported a decline in Nigeria’s oil production for November 2025. The country’s output, excluding condensates, fell by 0.7% to 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.496 million bpd in October 2025.

It is important to note that OPEC does not consider condensates, which Nigeria produces approximately 196,028 bpd, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

In its December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC confirmed that the figures for November were derived from secondary sources, showing that Nigeria did not meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. When considering data from direct sources, OPEC noted that Nigeria’s output for November was 1.436 million bpd, a slight increase from the 1.401 million bpd produced in October 2025.

Interestingly, the 1.486 million bpd recorded in November represents a marginal increase compared to 1.417 million bpd in the same period of 2024.

Analysis of the Output Decline

Reacting to the report, Professor Wumi Iledare, an expert in Petroleum Economics and Executive Director at the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, noted that the decline in output was not entirely unexpected. He stated:

“That Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates) for November 2025 at 1.486 mbpd, just slightly below October’s 1.496 mbpd and still short of the 1.5 mbpd target is not too surprising,” Iledare explained. He attributed the drop to several long-standing challenges, including:

• Insecurity in the oil-producing regions.
• A mature oil basin with no major new discoveries.
• Failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding.
• Governance gaps and ongoing policy uncertainty which continue to weaken investor confidence.

Iledare stressed the need for selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to be addressed, emphasizing the importance of having a designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector forward.

He also remarked that Nigeria’s struggle to meet its OPEC production quotas has been ongoing for several years.

NUPRC’s Ambitious Future Targets

Meanwhile, the NUPRC has set an ambitious target of producing more than 2.5 million bpd in the coming years, aiming to revive the nation’s oil sector.

Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, the Commission Chief Executive of NUPRC, highlighted that since its establishment in 2021, the commission has overseen significant improvements in the oil sector. One key achievement is the increase in Nigeria’s active rig count, which has risen from 16 rigs in 2021 to 40 rigs today. This increase signals efforts to expand oil exploration and boost production in the face of rising demand.