India’s crude oil imports from Russia are holding strong despite mounting international pressure and sanctions from the United States and other Western countries. According to trade and refining sources, India is set to import more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in December, underlining the country’s continued reliance on Russian oil amid global market turbulence.

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Indian Refiners Maintain Russian Oil Purchases

After India imported 1.77 million bpd from Russia in November, a 3.4% increase from October, analysts expected a sharp decline due to U.S. sanctions targeting two major Russian producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. However, preliminary LSEG trade flow data indicate that December arrivals are likely to exceed 1.2 million bpd, with the potential to reach 1.5 million bpd by month-end.

Several Indian refiners have resumed or increased purchases:

• Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is buying Russian volumes consistent with pre-sanctions levels.
• Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) has raised January purchases to at least six cargoes, up from two in December.
• Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) is negotiating additional January loadings.

Private refiners such as Nayara Energy, majority-owned by Russian firms including Rosneft, continue to source exclusively from Russia. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries and HPCL Mittal Energy have paused Russian imports for January, following strategic adjustments.

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Trade and Pricing Dynamics

India became the largest seaborne buyer of Russian crude after Western sanctions were imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These purchases, however, have created tensions in trade relations with the United States, with President Donald Trump raising import tariffs on Indian goods to 50%.

To maintain flows without violating sanctions, Russian producers are using domestic market swaps, exchanging oil for local consumption with export volumes handled by non-sanctioned entities. This approach allows Russia to continue exporting to India while meeting domestic refinery demand.

Analysts note that January oil prices from Russia are discounted by around $6 per barrel relative to dated Brent, making these imports especially attractive to Indian refiners. Peak Russian crude imports to India reached nearly 2 million bpd in June 2025, according to trade data.

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India-Russia Energy Ties Strengthen

Despite sanctions pressure, bilateral relations between India and Russia remain robust. In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where both leaders reaffirmed a commitment to continue energy cooperation.

“The strong India-Russia energy partnership ensures that imports remain resilient, even in the face of geopolitical and economic headwinds,” said Prashant Vashisth, vice president at Moody’s affiliate ICRA.

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Outlook for 2026

Trade sources suggest that Russian crude imports could remain near December levels in January, as new non-sanctioned entities step in to supply cargoes. However, total volumes are expected to fall below 1 million bpd, with Reliance halting purchases and some private refiners adjusting their strategies.

Overall, India’s resilient crude oil imports from Russia highlight the country’s strategic energy diversification while navigating sanctions and global trade pressures.