Nigeria’s worsening security challenges are not the result of chance, nor can they be solved through rhetoric, force alone, or repeated reliance on approaches that have already failed. Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence, and organized crime are the outcomes of long-standing weaknesses in governance, policing structures, intelligence coordination, and socioeconomic policy. At its core, Nigeria’s security architecture no longer matches the country’s size, diversity, or complexity.

A centralized policing system for a nation of over 200 million people has proven ineffective. The Nigerian Police Force is overstretched, underfunded, and structurally disconnected from the communities it serves. This reality is not a condemnation of individual officers, many of whom serve bravely, but of a system originally designed for a much smaller and less complex state. Effective security must be rooted locally. Intelligence gathering, trust building, and early threat detection all occur at the community level.

This reality underscores the urgent need for state police in Nigeria.

State police should not be viewed as a pathway to disorder or fragmentation, but as a practical response to Nigeria’s security realities. In every functional federal system, public safety is not governed solely from the center. Properly structured state police forces, operating within a clearly defined constitutional framework, would allow states to respond swiftly and intelligently to localized threats shaped by geography, culture, and terrain. Federal oversight, national standards, and judicial accountability must remain firmly in place. State police should strengthen, not weaken, the national security framework.

However, decentralization alone is not enough. To prevent abuse and preserve national unity, Nigeria should consider a dual-control security structure similar to the United States National Guard. Under this model, forces operate under state authority during local emergencies but can be federalized during national crises. Such an arrangement balances local responsiveness with national coherence.

A constitutionally anchored Nigerian National Guard would help close the dangerous gap between federal forces and state-level security. Professionally trained and clearly regulated, it could support disaster response, counterterrorism, border security, and internal stabilization without militarizing civilian policing. Dual control ensures accountability by preventing any single level of government from monopolizing the use of force.

No security framework can succeed without addressing the conditions that allow terrorism and criminality to thrive. Insecurity flourishes where governance fails — in environments marked by unemployment, corruption, injustice, political exclusion, abuse by security agencies, and unresolved grievances. Heavy-handed responses that ignore these root causes only deepen resentment and prolong instability. Economic inclusion, credible justice systems, youth employment, deradicalization efforts, and accountable governance are not optional ideals; they are strategic imperatives.

Citizens also play a critical role. Security is not solely the responsibility of the state. Communities must reject the normalization of violence, refuse to protect criminal actors, and participate in lawful intelligence sharing. Silence in the face of extremism enables it. Civic responsibility, social trust, and community vigilance form the invisible backbone of national security.

Nigeria has reached a decisive moment. Persisting with an overcentralized and reactive security model will only entrench instability. Meaningful reform requires courage, constitutional clarity, and political maturity. State police, a dual-control National Guard framework, and deliberate efforts to eliminate the conditions that fuel insecurity offer a credible path forward.

The question is no longer whether reform is necessary. The question is whether Nigeria will act before insecurity becomes irreversible.

Dr. Oludare Ogunlana is a Professor of Cyber and National Security and the founder of OGUN Security Research and Strategic Consulting LLC, a Texas-based security and intelligence firm.