The Netherlands is heading into a high-stakes parliamentary election on October 29, 2025, following the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s ruling coalition earlier this year. With just days to go, opinion polls show the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, gaining strong momentum amid growing national anxiety over immigration, housing shortages, and Dutch identity.
Far-Right Momentum Builds as Snap Election Nears
The upcoming election marks one of the most polarised contests in recent Dutch history. While the Netherlands has traditionally relied on coalition governments, the PVV’s rising popularity has reshaped the political landscape. According to an EenVandaag poll (October 14), the PVV is expected to win 31 of the 150 parliamentary seats, ahead of the Green-Labour alliance (GroenLinks-PvdA) with 25 and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) with 23.
However, forming a government will remain challenging. No single party in the Netherlands has ever achieved the 76 seats required for a majority, forcing potential coalition talks that could prove contentious.
The Collapse of the Coalition Government
The current political turmoil began in June 2025, when Wilders’ PVV dramatically withdrew from the four-party coalition it had formed after the 2023 general election. The dispute centred on PVV’s demand for stricter asylum policies, including border closures and the deportation of dual nationals convicted of crimes. Other coalition partners — the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), New Social Contract (NSC), and the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) — refused to endorse such extreme measures, prompting Wilders to announce the PVV’s exit on social media.
Prime Minister Dick Schoof soon resigned, triggering a snap election. The crisis deepened in August 2025, when Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp (NSC) resigned over disagreements concerning sanctions on Israel, prompting further defections and leaving the government effectively paralyzed.
Immigration Tops the Political Agenda
Polls indicate that immigration is the defining issue of the 2025 Dutch election. Nearly 50% of voters cited immigration as their primary concern, followed by housing (46%) and Dutch cultural identity (37%). The PVV’s hardline stance — advocating for border closures and a zero-asylum policy — has resonated with many disillusioned voters.
By contrast, the left-leaning GroenLinks-PvdA alliance supports a controlled migration policy, proposing an annual cap of 40,000–60,000 migrants. The divide reflects a wider ideological battle shaping Europe: whether to embrace multiculturalism or tighten borders in the face of rising nationalism.
Recent anti-immigration protests in Amsterdam and The Hague have further polarised Dutch society. During one rally at Museumplein on October 12, demonstrators waved Dutch flags and chanted slogans such as “Defend the Netherlands” and “Stop mass immigration,” with some protests turning violent. Left-wing parties and NGOs accused the far right of stoking fear and racism for political gain.
Housing and Integration Concerns Fuel Tensions
The Netherlands faces an acute housing shortage, with an estimated 434,000 homes needed — including 353,000 for asylum seekers and 81,000 for Dutch first-time buyers, according to the Ministry of Housing and Spatial Planning. The PVV and its allies have leveraged these statistics to link the crisis directly to immigration, a narrative experts warn is misleading but politically potent.
As of January 2024, 2.9 million migrants lived in the Netherlands — about 16.2% of the population, compared with 9.9% across the EU. Many migrants hail from Ukraine, Syria, and other conflict zones, driving debates over integration, welfare, and national identity.
Sociologist Mark van Ostaijen of Erasmus University Rotterdam notes that immigration now influences nearly every major policy debate — from education and healthcare to cultural identity — a shift he describes as “the mainstreaming of far-right narratives.”
Rise of Racism and Social Polarisation
Observers and activists warn that the rise of anti-immigration rhetoric has emboldened xenophobia. Noura Oul Fakir, a candidate for the progressive BIJ1 party, told Al Jazeera that migrants are increasingly reporting racist harassment and discrimination. “People feel more emboldened to express racist views, both online and in real life,” she said. “It’s the result of political normalisation of hate speech.”
Political analyst Nassreddin Taibi echoed those concerns, saying the protests and rhetoric have pushed even centrist parties to adopt stricter migration policies to “win back voters’ trust.”
Geert Wilders: Controversy and Strategy
Wilders, a fixture of Dutch politics since the 1990s, remains a divisive figure. Known for his Islamophobic remarks — including calling the Quran “fascist” and comparing Islam to Nazism — Wilders was previously tried for inciting hatred but acquitted in 2011 under free speech protections.
Despite his controversial past, Wilders has successfully rebranded himself as a defender of Dutch values. His campaign imagery — such as a viral post depicting a “pure” Dutch woman against a veiled Muslim figure with the caption “The choice is yours on 29/10” — plays into themes of national purity and cultural preservation, resonating with segments of the electorate who feel alienated by globalization and immigration.
Misinformation, AI, and the Battle for Truth
Social media and AI-generated disinformation have played a major role in shaping public opinion. The pro-PVV Facebook page Wij doen GEEN aangifte tegen Geert Wilders has posted manipulated images depicting immigrants as criminals, fueling xenophobia among its 129,000 followers.
The Dutch Data Protection Authority (DPA) has since warned voters not to rely on AI chatbots or fake news sources for election guidance. Outgoing Home Affairs Minister Judith Uitermark confirmed that the government is drafting new legislation to combat online misinformation and deepfakes ahead of the election.
Nearly Half of Dutch Voters Still Undecided
Despite the PVV’s apparent surge, nearly 48% of Dutch voters remain undecided, according to EenVandaag. This uncertainty could provide an opening for parties like GroenLinks-PvdA, CDA, or even VVD to stage a late comeback if they can shift attention toward issues such as climate change, healthcare, and economic recovery.
Civil society groups like MiGreat continue to campaign for tolerance and inclusion. “We’re trying to fight the far-right narrative faster than we can promote our own,” said MiGreat activist Esme Smithson Swain. “But unity is the only way forward.”
Key Takeaways
- Immigration and housing are the top issues driving Dutch voter sentiment in 2025.
- Geert Wilders’ PVV is leading the polls but faces difficulties forming a coalition.
- Rising xenophobia and misinformation have polarised the political climate.
- Nearly half of voters remain undecided, leaving room for surprises on election day.
Leave a Reply