New Delhi: Early climate forecasts indicate a potential emergence of El Nino conditions in mid-2026, raising concerns about the Indian monsoon, agriculture, and global temperature trends. Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have flagged a rising likelihood of El Nino development during the June-September period, a time crucial for rainfall in India.

The latest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin from NOAA, issued on December 29, suggests a 48% probability of El Nino emerging in the second half of the Indian monsoon season. In comparison, ENSO-neutral conditions have a 45% chance, while the likelihood of La Niña is below 10% during the same period. The bulletin also noted that La Niña is expected to continue for the next month or two, with a 68% probability of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March.

India Meteorological Department officials reinforced this early forecast. “It is too early to say with certainty during which month El Nino will emerge. These are very early forecasts, and we will have more clarity in the coming months,” said M. Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, during a briefing. Despite the uncertainty, the forecast has generated concern among meteorologists and climate scientists because El Nino years are historically associated with below-average rainfall during the monsoon and significantly hotter summers in India.

The Indian monsoon, which spans June to September, is crucial to the country’s economy. Approximately 51% of India’s farmed area is rain-fed, accounting for nearly 40% of total agricultural production, and about 47% of the population relies directly on agriculture for their livelihood. Any disruption in rainfall during the monsoon season can have cascading impacts on food security, crop yields, rural incomes, and the broader economy. Scientists caution that a potential El Nino could shorten the monsoon season and exacerbate heat waves and drought conditions, particularly in regions heavily dependent on monsoon rains.

Historical patterns underscore the risks associated with El Nino. The 2023-24 El Nino event triggered unprecedented global heat, with the World Meteorological Organisation reporting that the global average temperature between July 2023 and June 2024 reached 0.76°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. The 2023 El Nino developed rapidly during July and August, reaching moderate strength by September and peaking between November 2023 and January 2024. Experts have warned that if a similar El Nino emerges in 2026, it could amplify global warming trends, leading to record-breaking temperatures worldwide and intensifying the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather events.

Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist and lead author with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, noted the potential impact on India’s climate. “With La Niña around, we saw a relatively longer monsoon season. Moving to El Nino-like conditions in 2026 could mean a shorter monsoon season and a relatively hotter year than 2025,” he said. The transition from La Niña to El Nino would also affect rainfall patterns in other parts of the world, disrupting agricultural cycles and water availability across Asia, Africa, and the Americas.

Recent climate analyses reinforce concerns about rising global temperatures. In May 2025, the HT reported that the World Meteorological Organisation forecasted an 80% chance that a year between 2025 and 2029 would surpass 2024’s record-breaking heat. The WMO’s “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)” projected a 70% probability that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 would exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These projections suggest that even minor climate events such as El Nino and La Niña are taking place within the context of accelerated human-induced warming, which is exacerbating extreme weather and shifting seasonal patterns globally.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has also highlighted the ongoing warming trend. According to its data, 2025 is tied with 2023 as the second-warmest year on record, with India recording its eighth warmest year despite a relatively mild summer and a robust monsoon. Climate experts emphasize that the cumulative effect of greenhouse gas emissions is overriding natural variability, meaning that even La Niña events, traditionally associated with cooler global temperatures, cannot offset the overall warming trend.

Indian meteorologists are watching the situation closely. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather, stated: “As of now, we can say that evolving El Nino is expected around the commencement of the monsoon. Rainfall can get affected due to this. Monsoon rain can be below par. But this forecast should be taken with caution because of the spring barrier. Forecasts can change, but most models indicate evolving El Nino conditions during the monsoon.”

M. Rajeevan, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, echoed the need for caution. “Yes, predictions suggest a transition to El Nino from La Niña. But the probability is not that high, around 50%. We need to wait and watch. If an El Nino develops, it could impact the monsoon. It is too early to worry, but after 2-3 months, we may have a clearer idea of potential effects.” Rajeevan emphasized that such events would likely accelerate the ongoing warming trend, adding: “Even La Niña could not stop the warming trend caused by increasing greenhouse gases. There is no option except to mitigate global warming and reduce fossil fuel emissions.”

The potential development of El Nino this year has raised significant concerns for policymakers, farmers, and climate planners. Agriculture departments, water resource authorities, and disaster management agencies will likely need to prepare for below-average rainfall, drought contingencies, and heat stress on crops. Given that the monsoon is the backbone of India’s agrarian economy, even a marginal reduction in rainfall can have substantial socioeconomic implications.

Experts also note that the timing and strength of an El Nino event are critical. A weak or moderate El Nino may have a limited impact on rainfall, whereas a strong event can dramatically reduce monsoon precipitation and exacerbate heat waves. The spring barrier—a climatological phenomenon that makes ENSO predictions challenging before April—adds uncertainty to forecasts. Scientists caution that while early predictions are useful for preparatory planning, they remain subject to significant revision as the monsoon approaches.

In conclusion, early forecasts for 2026 suggest a 48% chance of El Nino conditions developing during the monsoon months of June to September, with potentially profound impacts on India’s rainfall, agriculture, and economy. The transition from La Niña to El Nino, coupled with ongoing global warming trends, could shorten the monsoon season, trigger hotter summers, and amplify climate-related stresses. While these predictions remain preliminary, they highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation, early-warning mechanisms, and mitigation strategies to address both immediate weather risks and long-term climate change.

India’s government, farmers, and climate scientists will need to closely monitor updates from NOAA, IMD, and other agencies in the coming months, as the emergence of El Nino could dictate crop planning, water management policies, and disaster preparedness measures for the year ahead. The evolving situation underscores the interconnectedness of global climate phenomena and local livelihoods, emphasizing the critical importance of timely information and coordinated action in mitigating the risks of extreme weather events.

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