January 8, 2026 – The global demand for copper is expected to surge by 50% by 2040, fueled by the growth of artificial intelligence (AI), defense, and robotics industries, according to a new report from S&P Global (SPGI). However, the consultancy warns that global copper supplies may fall short by over 10 million metric tons annually unless new mines are developed and recycling efforts are intensified.

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Why Copper is Critical

Copper has long been a vital industrial metal due to its:

• Excellent electrical conductivity, making it essential for wiring and electronics.
• Corrosion resistance, enabling long-lasting infrastructure and machinery.
• Malleability, allowing it to be shaped for construction, electronics, and renewable energy applications.

Traditionally, construction, transportation, technology, and electronics have been the primary drivers of copper demand. The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) over the past decade has further increased demand, while AI, robotics, and defense sectors are now emerging as major new users of the metal.

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Projected Copper Demand and Supply Gap

The S&P Global report forecasts:

• Global copper demand to reach 42 million metric tons per year by 2040, up from 28 million metric tons in 2025.
• Without additional mining or recycling, approximately 25% of demand could go unmet, creating a substantial supply gap.
• Key drivers of growth include AI infrastructure, data centers, defense spending, and robotics manufacturing.

Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, commented:

“The underlying demand factor here is electrification of the world, and copper is the metal of electrification.”

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AI, Defense, and Robotics: Major Drivers

Artificial Intelligence

• Over 100 new AI data center projects were launched last year, valued at just under $61 billion, significantly increasing copper consumption.
• Copper is critical in server hardware, cooling systems, and power supply networks in AI facilities.

Defense and National Security

• Geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Ukraine, have spurred countries like Japan and Germany to increase defense spending, boosting copper demand.
• According to Carlos Pascual, S&P Vice President,

“Demand for copper really is inelastic in the defense sector.”

Robotics and Automation

• Rapid industrial automation and the rise of smart manufacturing will require high volumes of copper for motors, wiring, and sensors.

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Global Supply Dynamics

• Chile and Peru are the largest copper producers, while China is the top copper smelter.
• The United States imports roughly half of its copper needs, despite tariffs on certain types of copper.
• S&P’s report does not include deep-sea mining potential, which could be a future source of supply.

Without new mining projects or improved recycling, the growing demand from AI, defense, and other high-tech industries may outstrip global production capabilities, causing price volatility and supply challenges.

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Key Takeaways

• Global copper demand is expected to increase 50% by 2040, reaching 42 million metric tons annually.
• AI, defense, and robotics are emerging as major new copper consumers.
• Supply shortfalls of more than 10 million metric tons per year could occur without new mines and recycling efforts.
• Electrification, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure are driving unprecedented copper requirements.