India’s exports to China witnessed a remarkable 22% rise in the first half of the 2025-26 fiscal year (April–September 2025), according to official government data. This growth, compared to the same period in FY25, underscores both the resilience of Indian exporters and the strategic diversification of trade in response to global challenges, particularly following the imposition of high tariffs by the United States on certain Indian goods.

India’s trade relationship with China, historically characterized by a large trade deficit, has gained renewed attention in recent months due to the shifting dynamics in global supply chains and trade policies. While India has long been a net importer from China, the recent surge in exports highlights opportunities for Indian businesses to expand into new and non-traditional markets. Government data indicates that exports to China in April–September 2025 amounted to $8.41 billion, up from $6.90 billion in the same period of FY25. This increase of approximately $1.5 billion represents a 22% rise year-on-year, suggesting that Indian exporters are gradually capitalizing on the demand for both traditional and emerging products in the Chinese market.

The growth has been particularly pronounced in sectors that faced challenges in traditional markets such as the United States. Indian exports of shrimps, aluminium, and certain manufactured goods like telephone set components had previously been affected by the imposition of tariffs by the US, which levied a combined 50% duty on these goods from India. Faced with the sudden loss of competitiveness in a key market, exporters responded by seeking alternative destinations for their products, and China emerged as a significant beneficiary. The shift demonstrates not only the agility of Indian exporters but also the increasing integration of India into Asian production and consumption networks.

Among the key drivers of the export surge are several specific commodities that have seen extraordinary growth. For instance, shipments of light oils and preparations of petroleum or bituminous minerals experienced a dramatic jump from $686.11 million in H1 FY25 to $1.48 billion in H1 FY26, representing a staggering 116% increase. This growth reflects both a rise in demand from Chinese industrial sectors and the ability of Indian refiners to supply competitive products in the Asian market.

Similarly, parts of telephone sets, an essential component of the broader electronics manufacturing ecosystem, witnessed a remarkable 162% surge in exports, climbing from $178.42 million in the first half of FY25 to $467.65 million in H1 FY26. The growth of such intermediate goods exports indicates India’s growing participation in global electronics value chains, particularly in sectors where cost competitiveness and quality standards are critical for international buyers.

Another significant contributor to export growth has been the seafood segment, especially frozen shrimps and prawns. Shipments in this category grew by 25%, from $373.03 million in H1 FY25 to $467.51 million in the first half of FY26. The increase in seafood exports reflects not only strong demand from China but also improvements in India’s cold-chain infrastructure, quality standards, and compliance with stringent sanitary and phytosanitary measures required by international markets.

Aluminium exports, a key commodity in India’s non-ferrous metals sector, also surged by approximately 59%, reaching $191.93 million. This growth is driven by a combination of factors, including rising global prices for aluminium, a rebound in industrial activity in China, and the ability of Indian producers to meet supply requirements for both semi-finished and finished products. In addition, the export of sulphur has seen an extraordinary increase of over 175%, reaching $116.80 million in H1 FY26, reflecting the strategic realignment of Indian chemical exports to meet rising demand in the Chinese market.

One of the most noteworthy aspects of this export growth has been the entry of products that were previously negligible or absent in India’s trade with China. For example, flat panel display modules of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology, which had no recorded exports in H1 FY25, accounted for $246.26 million in exports in H1 FY26. This shift highlights India’s capacity to diversify its export basket into high-value, technology-intensive products, signaling the potential for greater participation in advanced manufacturing supply chains. Similarly, other new or emerging products in India’s export portfolio to China have contributed to the overall growth, demonstrating a trend toward both diversification and value addition.

Industry experts have welcomed this development as an encouraging sign of India’s export resilience and competitiveness. Ajay Sahai, Director General and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), observed that the 22% surge in exports during H1 FY26 is a testament to the agility of Indian exporters and their ability to adapt to changing global trade dynamics. According to Sahai, the growth in value-added segments such as shrimp, aluminium, and telephone set components indicates that Indian businesses are increasingly capable of aligning their production with international demand, while effectively responding to external shocks such as tariff barriers and supply chain disruptions.

However, Sahai cautioned that while the rise in exports to China is a positive development, it should not be interpreted as a complete structural shift in India’s trade patterns. He emphasized that sustainable diversification of India’s export markets will require a deeper presence in emerging regions such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America, alongside continued consolidation of high-value trade with the United States and the European Union. In other words, while the current growth demonstrates adaptability, India’s long-term trade strategy must focus on both market diversification and the enhancement of export competitiveness across multiple sectors.

The data further indicate that the surge in exports was not uniformly distributed across all months or commodities. In particular, the post-tariff period witnessed an accelerated increase, with exports to China in September 2025 alone recording a 34% rise compared to the same month in the previous year, reaching $1.47 billion from $1.09 billion in September 2024. This suggests that Indian exporters quickly redirected shipments that may have otherwise been destined for the US or other affected markets, ensuring continuity of business and revenue generation.

The government has, over recent years, actively supported export diversification efforts through various initiatives. Programs promoting manufacturing competitiveness, trade facilitation, market intelligence, and infrastructure improvements have all contributed to enhancing the capacity of Indian exporters to meet international demand. In particular, export promotion councils and industry bodies have played a crucial role in identifying new market opportunities, facilitating trade partnerships, and ensuring compliance with international standards, thereby strengthening India’s export ecosystem.

Analysts also point out that the growth in exports to China reflects a broader trend of India integrating more deeply into Asian supply chains. With the rise of regional trade agreements, evolving demand patterns, and ongoing industrial modernization in countries such as China, India is increasingly positioned to supply both raw materials and intermediate goods required by manufacturing hubs across the continent. This includes products ranging from chemicals and metals to electronics components and processed food items. The ability to respond quickly to market needs and adjust export portfolios accordingly is key to maintaining competitiveness in an increasingly interconnected global trade environment.

Furthermore, the diversification into emerging products such as OLED display modules, high-value seafood, and specialized chemical exports indicates that India is not only relying on traditional commodities but also moving toward technology-intensive and value-added products. This trend is significant because it suggests that India is gradually upgrading its manufacturing base, aligning domestic production capabilities with global demand, and increasing the contribution of higher-margin products to its export basket.

Overall, India’s 22% rise in exports to China in H1 FY26 represents a multi-faceted success story. It is a reflection of the resilience of Indian exporters in the face of trade barriers, the strategic diversification of products and markets, and the gradual shift toward value-added, technology-driven exports. It also underscores the importance of government policy support, trade facilitation measures, and the role of industry bodies in strengthening India’s export ecosystem.

While challenges remain, particularly in ensuring sustained market diversification, improving production quality, and maintaining competitiveness, the current growth trajectory offers a strong signal of India’s increasing capability to adapt to global trade shocks. If Indian exporters continue to leverage both government support and private sector innovation, the country’s trade relations with China and other emerging markets are likely to expand further, contributing to overall economic growth and enhanced global trade integration.

As the global trade environment continues to evolve, the experience of Indian exporters in redirecting shipments and expanding into new markets highlights the potential for strategic adaptability, resilience, and long-term competitiveness. By continuing to diversify its exports and focus on high-value, technology-intensive goods, India is positioning itself as a reliable supplier in the global market, capable of responding to changing trade dynamics and seizing opportunities for growth.

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