North-west India is grappling with one of its driest winters in recent memory, with an alarming deficit in rainfall and snowfall that has left hills parched, rivers running low, and the winter tourism sector struggling. Meteorologists report that December 2025 saw an 84.8% shortfall in expected rainfall, while the first ten days of January 2026 experienced an 84% deficiency, creating conditions that experts describe as near-drought for the region. The Western Himalayas, which typically experience heavy snowfall during this period, have witnessed an unprecedented lack of snow, a rare occurrence that underscores the severity of this season’s dry spell.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the primary cause of this phenomenon is the unusually high-latitude trajectory of western disturbances, the extratropical storm systems that originate in the Mediterranean region and are crucial for winter precipitation in northern India. These disturbances, which usually descend southwards to bring rainfall and snow to the Western Himalayan region, have this year bypassed the subcontinent almost entirely.

“The main reason for such dry conditions is that western disturbances did not affect the Western Himalayan region this winter. A WD is approaching, but we will have to wait to see if it causes any significant rain or snowfall,” said M. Mohapatra, Director General of IMD.

This deviation from normal patterns has been stark when compared with previous years. In December 2024, the region recorded only an 18% deficiency in rainfall, while January 2025 saw an 81.4% shortfall, already raising concerns among meteorologists. Skymet Weather vice president Mahesh Palawat noted, “It is almost like there are drought-like conditions over the hills. This is very unusual for December and January. If the pattern continues, this could become one of the driest winters for north-west India in decades.”

The lack of western disturbances has left the hills dry and snow-starved, affecting both ecological and economic aspects. Snowfall in the Himalayas is a critical source of water for rivers feeding the Indo-Gangetic plains, and its absence threatens water availability for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower generation. Tourism has also taken a hit, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where ski resorts rely heavily on natural snowfall during peak winter months.

Dense fog, another winter phenomenon, is forecast to affect north-west India and Bihar for the next five to seven days. IMD predicts dense to very dense fog over Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh until January 12, with isolated pockets extending until January 17. Rajasthan is expected to experience similar conditions until January 11, Jammu division until January 12, and Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until January 15. These foggy conditions could disrupt transportation, reduce visibility on roads and railways, and exacerbate cold wave effects.

Cold wave to severe cold wave conditions are also forecast for isolated pockets in Rajasthan on Monday and Tuesday. Other states, including Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Odisha, are expected to experience extreme cold over Sunday and Monday. Despite the dry conditions, temperatures in the region remain bitterly cold. Over the past 24 hours, minimum temperatures fell below 0°C in several locations across Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and in isolated areas of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Meanwhile, scattered locations in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh recorded temperatures between 0°C and 5°C, with the lowest minimum of 1.3°C reported in Amritsar. Temperature anomalies were significantly below normal, with readings falling five degrees Celsius or more below average in parts of Odisha and parts of the western Himalayas, Uttar Pradesh, western Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and the Gangetic West Bengal region.

Meteorologically, a western disturbance is currently positioned as an upper air cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and adjoining Punjab. Additionally, a subtropical westerly jet stream with core winds of 351 km/h at 12.6 km above mean sea level is prevailing over north-west India. While this circulation may bring some weather changes, experts caution that the current pattern has already caused extensive moisture deficits.

The dry spell is not limited to the north-west. East and north-east India are experiencing even more severe deficiencies, with rainfall falling 95.2% below normal in December 2025 and 81% below in the first ten days of January 2026. Regions including Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura have received virtually no precipitation, worsening drought-like conditions and raising concerns for crop growth, drinking water availability, and river flows.

The persistent dry spell has significant implications for agriculture. Winter crops such as wheat and mustard, which are sensitive to moisture stress, may be adversely affected in states across north-west India, including Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. Water resources are under pressure, particularly in the Western Himalayan states that depend on snowmelt for rivers supplying irrigation and drinking water downstream.

Tourism, particularly in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, faces economic losses as snow-dependent activities like skiing, trekking, and other winter sports remain nonviable in the absence of snowfall. Local businesses and hospitality sectors dependent on winter tourism are likely to see reduced revenue, compounding challenges created by the dry and cold conditions.

Experts stress that the unusual behaviour of western disturbances this season could be linked to larger climatic shifts, including changes in global wind patterns, jet stream behaviour, and regional atmospheric circulation. While the impact of a single season cannot conclusively indicate long-term trends, repeated anomalies could point to increasing variability in winter precipitation over the Indian subcontinent.

Residents are advised to take precautions against extreme cold and fog-related hazards. Authorities are also monitoring water availability closely, urging agricultural communities to implement water-conservation measures where possible.

“The current situation highlights how critical winter precipitation is for north-west India, not just for snow in the hills but for rivers, agriculture, and human activity across the region,” said a senior IMD official. “With western disturbances bypassing the region this season, the subcontinent is experiencing an unusually dry winter, and the consequences could extend beyond immediate weather discomfort.”

As winter progresses, meteorologists are watching for the next western disturbance and potential snowfall events. While forecasts suggest some relief may be possible, the current moisture deficit and low temperatures mean the north-west remains under extreme winter stress. For now, north-west India continues to experience a rare meteorological phenomenon — a winter with parched hills, little snow, and the looming effects of one of the driest spells in recent memory.

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