Middle East / Gulf Region – Arab Gulf nations are intensifying diplomatic efforts to prevent a US military strike on Iran, fearing the chaos that could ensue from an abrupt collapse of the Islamic Republic. The region is closely monitoring nationwide protests in Iran, while US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened military action, raising concerns among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman Push for De-escalation
Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has been lobbying the US administration to avoid military action against Tehran, while Qatar and Oman have undertaken quiet diplomatic outreach to both Iranian and American officials.
According to Gulf analysts, this surge in diplomacy follows news that traditional US-Iran communication channels had broken down, heightening fears that a military strike could be imminent.
“GCC officials didn’t know what the US intentions were,” said Muhanad Seloom, assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst at the Arab Gulf States Institute, noted, “They were all concerned because all traditional channels were not being utilised, at least from the US side.”
Regional Fears and the Risk of Spillover
The potential consequences of a US attack on Iran are manifold: disruption of oil markets, threats to Gulf security, and potential Iranian retaliation on regional soil. Historical precedents underscore these risks:
- In 2019, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen struck Saudi oil facilities, reducing production temporarily.
- In June 2025, Iran attacked Qatar’s Al Udeid airbase, which hosts US forces, following US strikes on Iranian nuclear targets.
Experts warn that Iran still possesses a significant arsenal of missiles, drones, and regional proxies, capable of inflicting substantial damage if provoked.
“Iran has ballistic missiles, supersonic missiles, and militia groups around, so if they are given a reason to hit, they would,” said Seloom.
A senior Iranian official reportedly warned that US bases across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could be targeted if Washington strikes Tehran, prompting partial drawdowns at some facilities.
US-Iran Tensions and Trump’s Statements
Trump has continued to pressure Iran, calling for regime change and urging Iranians to “take over state institutions,” though it remains unclear what form of military action he intends. While he suggested recently that killings in Iran were stopping, he did not rule out future military measures.
The Gulf states are especially wary of unintended consequences, recalling the aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, which created a power vacuum, fueled civil war, strengthened extremist groups, and ultimately led to the rise of ISIS.
“They may like to see the Iranian leadership weakened, but all of them are more concerned about chaos and uncertainty and the possibility of more radical elements coming to power there,” said Khalaf.
Economic and Strategic Stakes for Gulf States
Different Gulf countries have varying relationships with Iran, but all fear the fallout from instability. For example:
- Qatar and Oman maintain energy partnerships with Tehran, including shared natural gas resources.
- The UAE, reliant on trade with Iran and having recently strengthened ties with Israel, faces potential disruption from unrest in its neighbor.
- Saudi Arabia, despite a historic rivalry with Iran, prioritizes regional stability to safeguard its economic reforms and tourism-driven diversification initiatives.
Saudi officials emphasize gradual change rather than sudden regime collapse, which could trigger unpredictable outcomes.
“Our goal is to achieve stability and calm so that we can direct our resources toward building a better future for our people,” said Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir.
Analysts caution that while Gulf states may welcome gradual reforms in Iran, sudden upheaval could inflame conflicts across the region.
“The whole region is on fire, and we don’t need to add another fire to our doors,” said Saudi political analyst Khaled Batarfi.
Key Takeaways
- Gulf nations are acting as mediators to prevent a US-Iran military escalation.
- Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman are actively engaging with both Washington and Tehran to maintain stability.
- Economic and security considerations are central: oil markets, trade, and foreign investment depend on regional calm.
- Historical lessons from Iraq and past Gulf conflicts shape the cautious approach of GCC members.
- Gulf countries favor gradual change in Iran rather than abrupt regime collapse, which could empower radical elements.
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