Updated: Jan 18, 2026

The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections may have declared the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the single-largest party, but they have not brought political certainty to Mumbai’s civic administration. Instead, they have set the stage for an intense and delicate power struggle ahead of the mayoral election, with the ruling BJP–Shiv Sena alliance walking a numerical tightrope and guarding against any last-minute political surprises.

With the mayor’s post still to be decided, Maharashtra deputy chief minister and Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde has taken the unusual step of moving his party’s newly elected corporators to a hotel in Bandra. The move underscores the nervousness within the ruling alliance, even though it has technically crossed the majority mark in the 227-member civic body.

Numbers That Leave Little Room for Error

In the BMC, elections are held every five years to choose corporators who represent individual wards across Mumbai. These corporators, in turn, elect the mayor from among themselves. To command a majority and secure the mayor’s chair, a party or alliance needs the support of at least 114 corporators.

The BJP won 89 seats in the elections, while its ally, the Eknath Shinde–led Shiv Sena, secured 29 seats. Together, the alliance has a tally of 118 seats—just four above the halfway mark. While this is enough on paper, the slender margin has left both parties acutely aware that even one or two defections could upset the balance of power.

It is this vulnerability that has driven Shinde’s decision to keep his corporators together under close watch. Party leaders have said the move is aimed at preventing poaching or inducements in the run-up to the mayoral vote, a phenomenon not unfamiliar in Maharashtra’s fiercely competitive political landscape.

Why the Mayor’s Post Matters So Much

The mayor of Mumbai is not merely a ceremonial figure. Heading India’s richest civic body, the mayor plays a key role in shaping the city’s governance, priorities, and political narrative. Control of the BMC has long been seen as a symbol of political dominance in Maharashtra, particularly in Mumbai, which contributes significantly to the state’s economy.

Once a majority is secured in the civic house, the ruling side selects its mayor in a process similar to how chief ministers or the prime minister are chosen—through a vote among elected representatives. With the numbers so close, the ruling alliance cannot afford complacency until the final vote is cast.

BJP Tops the Chart, But Unease Lingers

Despite emerging as the largest party, the BJP is far from celebrating wholeheartedly. Party insiders admit that the final tally fell short of expectations, triggering introspection and concern within its ranks.

Ahead of the elections, the BJP had initially planned to contest over 155 seats and had set an ambitious target of winning 120 to 125 seats on its own. However, after intervention from the party’s central leadership, seat-sharing talks with the Shinde-led Shiv Sena altered the equation. Shinde is said to have negotiated aggressively, eventually securing 91 seats for his faction, leaving the BJP to contest 137.

With this reduced contest share, the BJP recalibrated its target to around 110 seats. The final outcome—89 seats—fell well below that revised goal.

A senior BJP leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged the disappointment. “Before the polls, the party had inducted 11 sitting corporators from other parties. Including our own 82, we had 93 sitting corporators going into the election. We could not even retain that number,” the leader said.

Internal Factors Behind BJP’s Underperformance

Party leaders have privately attributed the underwhelming performance to several internal factors. Among them are a lack of coordination within the Mumbai unit, issues in candidate selection, and an inability to effectively counter the emotional and identity-based campaign run by rivals.

The pitch of “Marathi asmita” (Marathi pride) and “Mumbai pride,” articulated forcefully by Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray, appears to have resonated with a section of voters. BJP leaders concede that the party struggled to blunt this narrative, particularly in traditional Sena strongholds.

Uddhav Thackeray’s Calculated Signals

Even as the BJP–Shinde alliance works to secure the mayoralty, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray has kept the political pot simmering. Despite losing control of the civic body, he reiterated that it remains his “dream” to see a Shiv Sena (UBT) mayor in Mumbai, adding that the dream could still come true “if god is willing.”

A day after the results, Uddhav made a cryptic remark suggesting that his party could yet stake a claim to the mayor’s post, though he did not explain how such a scenario might unfold. His comments have been interpreted as a signal that opposition forces are keeping their options open and watching the ruling alliance’s slim margins closely.

Opposition’s Argument: A Divided Sena Changed the Outcome

Leaders from the opposition have been quick to argue that the BJP’s success is largely a product of the Shiv Sena split. Sena (UBT) leader Sunil Prabhu said that the BJP would not have been in such a strong position had the Sena remained united.

Former Congress leader Sanjay Jha echoed this sentiment in a post on X, stating that if the Shiv Sena had stayed united, the BJP would have had “no chance” in the BMC elections. He went further to suggest that if the rival Sena factions were genuinely interested in restoring the party’s former glory, a reconciliation could still push the BJP into the opposition.

The numbers lend some weight to this argument. While the BJP won 89 seats, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) secured 65 seats, and the Shinde faction won 29. Combined, the two Sena factions would have had 94 seats—more than the BJP’s tally. An alliance with the Congress could have comfortably crossed the majority mark, potentially reshaping the power equation in the civic body.

A Fragile Majority and a High-Stakes Vote

For now, however, these remain theoretical possibilities. The immediate reality is that the BJP–Shinde alliance has a narrow majority and must ensure unity and discipline within its ranks until the mayoral election is concluded. The decision to guard corporators reflects an acute awareness of how fragile the situation is.

As Mumbai awaits the final outcome, the BMC results underline a broader truth about the city’s politics: numbers alone do not guarantee power. With shifting loyalties, strong personalities, and high stakes, the battle for Mumbai’s mayoralty is far from over, even after the votes have been counted.