The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has reported that Nigeria’s oil output, including condensates, fell by 8.3% year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.684 million bpd in December 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, output declined slightly from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.544 million bpd in December. Of this, 122,385 bpd were condensates, which are not recognized under OPEC quotas, meaning Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd OPEC target and fell short of the 2025 federal budget production target of 2.06 million bpd.

The NUPRC reported that daily production fluctuated between 1.52 million and 1.82 million bpd, with an average of 1.544 million bpd, comprising 1.422 million bpd of crude oil and 122,385 bpd of condensate.

Similarly, OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report confirmed a marginal month-on-month decline in Nigeria’s oil output (excluding condensates) to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November, a 0.9% drop, and reiterated that Nigeria did not meet its OPEC quota.

Commenting on the decline, Professor Wumi Iledare, Petroleum Economics expert, cited factors such as insecurity, a mature oil basin with no major discoveries, limited hydrocarbon block offerings, governance gaps, and policy uncertainty, which continue to deter investor confidence. He stressed that Nigeria urgently needs clear sector leadership to meet production targets and OPEC commitments.