Gyeongju, South Korea — October 29, 2025 — As US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to meet for the first time since 2019, hopes are rising that the two leaders might strike a deal to ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies. However, despite signs of a temporary truce, analysts warn that the US-China rivalry is far from over — and that any agreement will likely only cool, not cure, the geopolitical and economic rift dividing Washington and Beijing.
A Modest Deal Amid Growing Tensions
Trump and Xi are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. The highly anticipated meeting comes at a time when US-China relations are strained by disputes over trade, technology, and global influence.
According to early reports, the deal may focus on preventing further escalation rather than reversing the ongoing trade war. Expected outcomes include China delaying its planned export controls on rare earth minerals, and the US shelving proposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports. Yet, experts remain cautious, emphasizing that these measures amount to damage control rather than a breakthrough.
“Whatever happens this week, we haven’t seen the end of economic tensions, tariff threats, export restrictions, and digital rules,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore.
The Contours of a Limited Truce
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that both sides are working toward a “constructive” framework to stabilize trade relations. The deal reportedly includes:
- China agreeing to increase imports of US soybeans and cooperate on curbing fentanyl production.
- The US softening its stance on the TikTok divestment issue.
- A temporary suspension of new tariffs and Chinese export bans.
Still, key tariffs from the past trade war remain in place. The average US tariff on Chinese goods stands at over 55 percent, while China maintains 32 percent tariffs on American exports. Both countries continue to enforce strict export controls on advanced technologies, particularly AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Since Trump’s return to the White House earlier this year, bilateral trade has sharply declined. Chinese exports to the US fell 27 percent in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, while US exports to China dropped 16 percent.
The Broader Power Struggle Persists
Despite the diplomatic optics of cooperation, the underlying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China remains fierce. Beijing has continued to push for global economic and political influence through partnerships in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while Washington reinforces alliances through the Indo-Pacific strategy and technology restrictions targeting Chinese firms.
Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute at Renmin University, predicts the relationship could worsen:
“The structural contradictions between China and the United States have not been resolved. China’s strength is growing and will eventually surpass that of the United States.”
Shan Guo, a trade analyst at Hutong Research in Shanghai, agrees that the Gyeongju meeting is about short-term risk management, not long-term reconciliation.
“A fundamental de-escalation is unlikely given the US political climate,” Guo told Al Jazeera.
However, she added that both sides might “put aside their differences for at least a year,” given Washington’s reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals critical for technology and defense manufacturing.
Experts: Deal May Delay, Not Defuse, the Rivalry
Former White House and CIA official Dennis Wilder, now a professor at Georgetown University, expressed cautious optimism about the summit’s potential.
“We might see tactical progress — like suspended tariffs or renewed trade talks — but a comprehensive trade deal is still far off,” Wilder said.
He added that negotiations could continue into 2026 if Trump proceeds with a planned state visit to Beijing next year.
Trump and Xi’s rhetoric underscores the persistent divide. While Trump frequently accuses China of “ripping off the United States,” Xi emphasizes “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation.”
Analysts interpret this language gap as symbolic of deeper ideological and strategic mistrust.
Outlook: A Fragile Pause in a Long-Term Rivalry
Even if the Gyeongju meeting produces a temporary détente, the US-China rivalry is set to define global geopolitics for years to come. Both nations are locked in competition over semiconductors, artificial intelligence, defense technology, and global governance models.
For now, analysts expect a short-term cooling of tensions, offering markets and businesses a brief reprieve. But as national interests, political pressures, and strategic ambitions remain irreconcilable, a full normalization of US-China relations appears unlikely.
“Respect must go both ways,” said Wang Wen. “Until the US treats China as an equal, the friction will continue.”
📊 Key Takeaways
- Event: Trump-Xi meeting at APEC Summit, Gyeongju, South Korea
- Goal: De-escalation, not resolution of trade war
- Possible outcomes: Suspension of tariffs, delayed rare earth restrictions, increased agricultural trade
- Ongoing issues: AI export bans, sanctions, political mistrust
- Analysts’ view: Expect temporary relief, but long-term rivalry endures
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