Turkish Monthly Inflation Forecasted at 2.83% Amid Food and Clothing Price Hikes

ISTANBUL, October 30, 2025 — Turkey’s monthly inflation rate is projected to reach 2.83% in October, slightly easing from 3.23% in September, according to a Reuters poll of ten economists. Despite the monthly moderation, the annual inflation rate is forecast to remain elevated at 32% by year-end, above the Central Bank of Turkey’s target of 24% and its earlier forecast range of 25–29%.

The expected rise in October inflation is driven by seasonal price increases in clothing and unprocessed food, along with persistent inflationary pressures in automotive, energy, and services sectors. September’s inflation had already exceeded expectations, with the annual rate climbing to 33.29%, marking the first increase in yearly inflation since May 2024.

Central Bank Policy and Economic Challenges

Earlier this month, Turkey’s central bank slowed its monetary easing with a 100-basis-point rate cut, lowering the policy rate to 39.5%, citing a slower-than-expected disinflation process. Analysts highlight that political uncertainty, including the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, as well as adverse weather events like frost and drought, have contributed to volatility in food prices and complicated efforts to reduce inflation.

The central bank has emphasized that recent spikes in food prices pose heightened risks to the disinflation path, and officials remain committed to maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to stabilize prices.

Outlook for Turkey’s Inflation

Economists in the poll expect that Turkey’s inflation will gradually decline to 32% by the end of 2025, though this remains significantly above policy targets. The Turkish Statistical Institute will release the official October inflation data at 0700 GMT on November 3.