As dawn breaks over Bihar, the state heads into a crucial first phase of polling that will set the tone for one of India’s most consequential state elections in recent years. After weeks of intense campaigning, high-decibel rallies, and bitter exchanges between political rivals, around 3.75 crore voters are set to cast their ballots on Thursday to decide the fate of 1,314 candidates across 121 constituencies in the 243-member Bihar legislative assembly.

The stakes could not be higher. The outcome of this phase will be a key indicator of whether the two-decade-long rule of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners can withstand the strong challenge mounted by the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, and the newly launched Jan Surajmovement of strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor.

A Battle for Bihar’s Political Future

Thursday’s polling covers 18 districts, including major political battlegrounds such as Patna, Darbhanga, Madhepura, Saharsa, Muzaffarpur, Gopalganj, Siwan, Saran, Vaishali, Samastipur, Begusarai, Lakhisarai, Munger, Sheikhpura, Nalanda, Buxar, and Bhojpur. Among the prominent constituencies going to the polls are Raghopur, Begusarai, Khagaria, Mahua, Ujairpur, Patna Sahib, Nalanda, and Buxar—each carrying symbolic and strategic significance for the state’s political blocs.

This phase features several heavyweight candidates whose victories or defeats could reshape Bihar’s political landscape. Tejashwi Yadav, the RJD’s chief ministerial face, contests from Raghopur, seeking to consolidate his family’s traditional base while appealing to a younger electorate frustrated with unemployment and poor infrastructure. On the other hand, BJP state president Samrat Choudhary, contesting from Tarapur, represents the NDA’s bid to assert continuity and stability.

Also in the fray is Tej Pratap Yadav, Tejashwi’s elder brother, who has broken away from the RJD to float his own outfit and is contesting from Mahua. His independent venture adds another layer of complexity to the election, potentially splitting the Yadav vote in certain pockets. Other notable contestants include Maithili Thakur from Alinagar, and JD(U)heavyweights Shravan Kumar and Vijay Kumar Choudhary, both trusted lieutenants of Nitish Kumar.

Mokama Under Spotlight

The Mokama constituency has emerged as one of the most closely watched battlegrounds following the October 30 murder of Jan Suraj supporter Dular Chand Yadav. The incident drew widespread attention not only because of its timing, days before the election, but also because JD(U) candidate and strongman Anant Singh has been booked in connection with the case. Singh, known for his controversial past, faces a stiff challenge from Veena Devi, wife of another ‘bahubali’-turned-politician Surajbhan Singh, who is contesting on an RJD ticket. The volatile atmosphere in Mokama has led to heightened security measures and heavy deployment of paramilitary forces.

High-Voltage Campaigning

The campaign for the first phase saw a whirlwind of rallies by national and regional leaders, signaling the election’s importance not just for Bihar but for India’s wider political narrative. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP national president JP Nadda, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma all campaigned aggressively for NDA candidates, highlighting the government’s infrastructure projects and welfare schemes.

The opposition, led by Tejashwi Yadav, countered with a campaign centered on unemployment, inflation, and corruption, branding the Nitish-led NDA as exhausted and out of touch. Yadav’s rallies, often drawing massive crowds, projected him as the face of a generational change in Bihar politics. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj movement, contesting all 243 seats, has sought to present itself as a third alternative, appealing to voters disillusioned with both the RJD and NDA. While Kishor’s electoral impact remains uncertain, his message of “clean politics and participatory governance” has resonated with a segment of the youth and civil society.

The Numbers Behind the Election

According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), this phase includes 10.72 lakh first-time voters and 7.78 lakh voters aged between 18 and 19 years, signaling the importance of the youth vote in determining Bihar’s political direction. The presence of over a thousand candidates—an average of nearly 11 per seat—underscores the intensity of the competition and the diversity of political representation across constituencies.

Polling will begin at 7 a.m. and continue until 6 p.m., though in several constituencies identified as sensitive or security-prone, voting hours have been shortened to 5 p.m. to ensure safety. The ECI has deployed Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) alongside State Police to maintain order, particularly in districts with a history of electoral violence or booth capturing.

In Patna, Superintendent of Police Diksha confirmed that comprehensive security measures are in place. “Patrolling parties will conduct raids throughout the day. From morning, there will be multi-layered checks at the zonal and super-zonal levels, supported by quick response teams,” she said. The police have also established 24-hour control rooms to monitor polling stations in real time.

A Referendum on Nitish Kumar’s Legacy

The first phase of polling represents more than just an electoral contest—it is a referendum on Nitish Kumar’s 20-year leadership, defined by his reputation as a pragmatic administrator and social reformer, but marred in recent years by allegations of stagnation and indecision. His alliance with the BJP has allowed the NDA to retain power, but discontent over unemployment, rural distress, and rising costs has given the opposition fertile ground.

For the RJD, the election is an opportunity for revival. Tejashwi Yadav, who led the opposition in the previous assembly, has worked to recast his image from that of a political heir to a leader in his own right, emphasizing governance, jobs, and social justice. His challenge will be to expand RJD’s appeal beyond its traditional caste base to urban voters seeking change.

Meanwhile, the BJP, buoyed by its national leadership’s popularity, is banking on a narrative of continuity and stability. Leaders like Samrat Choudhary and Mangal Pandey are positioning the NDA as the only alliance capable of maintaining law and order and delivering development.

What Lies Ahead

The first phase will set the tone for the remaining two phases of polling, determining the momentum and morale of both major alliances. A strong performance by the RJD or Jan Suraj could energize the opposition, while a solid showing by the NDA would signal that Nitish Kumar’s governance model still commands trust.

As Bihar votes, all eyes will be on the turnout figures, which have historically served as a barometer of anti-incumbency sentiment. The results of this phase—though weeks away—will offer the first clues about whether Bihar’s electorate is ready for change or remains committed to stability.

By the end of the day, as polling booths close and electronic voting machines are sealed, the fate of more than 1,300 candidates will rest in the hands of 3.75 crore voters—a vast democratic exercise that could redefine Bihar’s political future.