Florida has long been seen as a Republican stronghold in recent years, but Democrats are finding fresh hope after stronger-than-expected performances in two special congressional elections this April. Despite ultimately losing both races, the significant narrowing of GOP margins is prompting state party leaders to argue that no seat is truly safe heading into the 2026 midterms.

Turning Red to Purple Again?

In the special election to replace Matt Gaetz, Democrat Gay Valimont cut the Republican margin by half and turned Escambia County blue — a feat not seen since 2006. Over in the sixth congressional district, Josh Weil, a school teacher, slashed a previous 33-point GOP lead to just 13%.

These surprising shifts are being credited to:

• Hyper-local campaigning focused on veterans’ issues and pocketbook concerns.

• Disillusionment with Trump’s second term, particularly in areas like Daytona Beach and DeLand, where protests have erupted.

• A flip in NPA (no party affiliation) voters, who swung from favoring Republicans 60-40 in November to favoring Democrats 60-40 in April.

Democratic Strategy Shift

State party chair Nikki Fried says the results send a warning shot: “There are no safe seats in Florida in 2026.” Rather than national figures like AOC or Bernie Sanders campaigning in deep-red districts, Valimont and Weil emphasized community ties and bread-and-butter issues.

Valimont stated, “They stopped seeing me as ‘the Democrat’ and started seeing me as someone who wants to represent them.”

What’s Driving the Shift?

Analysts point to several factors contributing to this Democratic momentum:

• Voter fatigue with far-right policies from Governor Ron DeSantis and Trump.

• Concerns about veterans’ healthcare, Social Security, and public services being rolled back.

• Rising youth, Hispanic, and African American voter engagement, spurred in part by grassroots protests not tied to Democratic organizations.

What’s Next?

With national attention now on Florida’s evolving political climate, the challenge for Democrats will be capitalizing on this momentum. That includes:

• Recruiting local, well-known candidates.

• Investing in on-the-ground organizing and precinct-level leadership.

• Tapping into independent and disillusioned Republican voters who may be open to change.

As Nick Sakhnovsky, chair of Volusia County Democrats, put it: “Activism matters, but it has to be channeled. There’s a big difference between showing up to protest and winning elections.”