The fate of President Trump’s much-anticipated “big, beautiful bill” remains uncertain as three distinct Republican factions in the House have stalled progress, raising serious questions about when—or if—the bill will come to a vote.
During a heated House Budget Committee hearing on Friday, conservative Republicans joined Democrats in rejecting the bill, despite President Trump’s call for party unity.
House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington acknowledged the setback after a 16-21 vote, signaling that the legislative effort is paused until Monday at the earliest.
GOP Opposition Divides Into Three Main Factions
House Speaker Mike Johnson faces opposition on three critical fronts within his own party:
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Blue-State Republicans Oppose SALT Deduction Limits
These members seek to raise the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from the proposed $10,000 to $30,000 or higher. Tensions over SALT have sparked intense closed-door negotiations. -
Medicaid Cuts Spark Concern Among Lawmakers
Some Republicans worry that cutting Medicaid benefits, which could lead to millions losing healthcare coverage, risks political backlash in future elections. -
Fiscal Hawks Demand Deeper Spending Cuts
This group insists on more significant budget reductions, including further Medicaid cuts, to ensure the bill is fiscally responsible before they will support it.
Trump Urges GOP Unity but Divisions Persist
President Trump emphasized the need for Republican solidarity in a Friday morning statement, denouncing “grandstanders” within the party. However, Speaker Johnson has struggled to reconcile these factions ahead of the planned vote.
Conservative lawmakers like Rep. Ralph Norman (SC) and Rep. Chip Roy (TX) expressed disappointment, labeling the current bill “smoke and mirrors” and pushing for more immediate and deeper cuts.
The Challenge: Narrow GOP Majority and Democratic Opposition
With Republicans holding a slim House majority of 220-213 and unified Democratic opposition, each GOP faction holds enough sway to block the bill.
Analysts like Greg Valliere of AGF Investments now question whether a full House vote will happen next week, though some expect the bill could pass later this year, possibly by August or December.
Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners estimates a 70% chance of a vote next week but warns there is still a 30% risk the bill could fail and be replaced by a short-term bipartisan funding patch.
Key Issues: Medicaid Spending and the Debt Ceiling
Medicaid remains the most contentious issue, with planned spending cuts delayed until 2029, after Trump’s presidency, frustrating fiscal conservatives.
Senator Josh Hawley criticized the proposed Medicaid cuts, warning Republicans risk alienating working-class voters if they move forward.
Meanwhile, the debate over raising the U.S. debt ceiling by $4 trillion adds urgency, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns borrowing authority could run out by August.
SALT Deduction Disputes and Fiscal Impact
The so-called “SALTY five,” led by New York GOP Reps. Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler, push for a more generous SALT deduction. LaLota recently vowed to vote against the bill without a satisfactory compromise.
The bill’s tax provisions alone could cost over $3.8 trillion, with overall new government borrowing potentially reaching $2.8 trillion or more, adding to the national debt by over $5.2 trillion in the coming years, according to the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
What’s Next for the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’?
With divisions deep and the clock ticking toward the Memorial Day recess, Speaker Johnson’s efforts to unite Republicans face serious obstacles. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Trump’s signature budget bill can overcome internal GOP resistance and become law.
