Explosive Growth in Fossil Fuel Projects Defies Global Climate Goals
A new report from four environmental NGOs has revealed that 28 new “carbon bomb” projects have been launched worldwide since 2021 — a stark warning that the world remains far from meeting its Paris Agreement climate targets.
The term “carbon bomb” refers to large-scale oil, gas, or coal extraction projects capable of emitting over one billion tonnes of CO₂ during their lifetime — enough to derail global efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.
The joint analysis by Lingo, Data for Good, Reclaim Finance, and Éclaircies found that despite international pledges to phase out fossil fuels, dozens of new high-emission projects have begun operations or been approved in the last five years.
Their findings underscore what climate advocates call a “dangerous disconnect” between political commitments and real-world fossil fuel expansion.
A World Still Addicted to Fossil Fuels
In 2022, global researchers identified 425 carbon bomb projects operating or planned across the globe. The latest report finds that 365 of those projects remain active — still producing over one billion tonnes of CO₂ each — even as some others have reduced output or been reclassified due to revised production data.
The new analysis paints an alarming picture: the combined potential emissions from all known carbon bomb and smaller extraction projects are estimated to be 11 times greater than the planet’s remaining carbon budget to stay below 1.5°C.
“This means that if even a fraction of these projects continue operating at full capacity, global climate goals will be unattainable,” the report warns.
Banks Still Financing Fossil Expansion
Despite repeated calls from scientists and international organizations to end fossil fuel financing, the report highlights that the world’s 65 largest banks have collectively provided $1.6 trillion between 2021 and 2024 to companies involved in these high-emission projects.
Barclays Bank ranks as the top financier, providing $33.7 billion to 62 companies, including major oil giants such as Eni, ExxonMobil, and TotalEnergies.
“Major global banks are exacerbating climate change and locking in future emissions,” said Louis-Maxence Delaporte, Energy Research Manager at Reclaim Finance. “By continuing to fund fossil fuel expansion, they are giving carte blanche to corporations that are destroying the planet.”
Global Distribution: China, Russia, and the U.S. Lead the Way
According to the data, China accounts for the largest share of carbon bomb projects — approximately 43 percent of the global total — followed by Russia (9 percent) and the United States (5 percent).
While Western oil majors are responsible for the most individual projects, Saudi Aramco and China’s CHN Energy are the top emitters in terms of total carbon output.
The findings reflect an entrenched global dependency on fossil fuels, with developing and industrialized nations alike continuing to approve new extraction sites despite international agreements to phase them out.
The Paris Agreement: Goals in Jeopardy
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, committed countries to limiting global warming to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly warned that no new oil or gas projects can be approved if the world is to remain on track.
Yet, since 2021, the opposite trend has prevailed. At COP28 in Dubai, nations agreed to begin phasing out fossil fuels — but campaigners say real-world policies and investments tell a different story.
“Every new carbon bomb makes the Paris targets harder to achieve,” said Marie Toussaint, an EU lawmaker and climate advocate. “Governments cannot claim to support climate action while approving mega-projects that will emit for decades.”
The Scale of Smaller Projects
Beyond the major “carbon bombs,” the report also lists more than 2,300 smaller extraction projects approved or initiated since 2021. Each of these has potential emissions exceeding five million tonnes of CO₂, roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of a city like Paris.
Combined, these smaller projects represent a massive, underreported threat, contributing significantly to the global carbon overshoot scenario feared by climate scientists.
NGOs Call for Urgent Financial and Policy Reforms
Environmental groups are urging governments and financial institutions to immediately halt fossil fuel expansion and redirect funding toward renewable energy projects.
The NGOs behind the report are also calling for stronger disclosure requirements, demanding that banks and investors publicly report their exposure to high-emission projects.
“Without financial accountability, the energy transition will remain an illusion,” said Delaporte of Reclaim Finance. “Policymakers must ensure that banks stop funding carbon bombs and start supporting sustainable alternatives.”
The Consequences: Exceeding the Global Carbon Budget
According to the NGOs’ calculations, if all identified projects operate at projected capacity, total emissions will exceed the global carbon budget by a factor of 11. This would push the world past 1.5°C warming — the threshold scientists warn could trigger irreversible climate feedback loops, including widespread ice melt, ecosystem collapse, and extreme weather intensification.
The report aligns with warnings from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the world has less than a decade to make deep cuts in emissions or face escalating climate disasters.
A Call for Accountability Ahead of COP29
The publication of this report comes just weeks before the COP29 climate summit, where world leaders will review progress on fossil fuel phase-outs and financing reforms. Activists hope the findings will push governments to adopt binding measures rather than voluntary pledges.
“The science is clear — new fossil fuel projects are incompatible with a livable planet,” said Greta Thunberg, commenting on similar findings earlier this year. “Every ton of carbon emitted brings us closer to collapse. We cannot negotiate with physics.”
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