WASHINGTON — The United States’ planned 100% tariffs on Chinese goods could take effect as early as November 1, depending on how Beijing responds to Washington’s demands, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.

Greer emphasized that while there was still a window to de-escalate trade tensions, China’s recent actions on critical minerals and rare earth exports have made compromise increasingly difficult.

“It Depends on China,” Greer Says

Greer explained that the decision on whether additional tariffs would go forward “depends entirely on China.” He noted that staff-level discussions held in Washington on Monday offered a “slim but real” chance to resolve the dispute over Beijing’s expanded export restrictions on rare earth materials, which are vital to global high-tech industries.

“We think we’ll be able to work through it,” Greer said. “But we can’t have a situation where the Chinese want veto power over the world’s high-tech supply chains. I think they’ve realized they’ve overstepped.”

The Biden administration—still led by President Donald Trump following his return to office—has tied the tariff implementation timeline to Beijing’s willingness to lift or modify its export licensing regime for critical minerals.

Financial Markets React to Trade War Escalation

Global financial markets have been volatile in recent days as investors weigh the consequences of an escalating U.S.–China trade war. Trump’s announcement of 100% duties—stacked atop existing tariffs averaging 55%—sent shockwaves through commodity and manufacturing sectors that rely on Chinese materials.

Officials from both nations have since scrambled to ease tensions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Commerce Ministry issued statements reassuring investors that negotiations remain active.

However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a stark warning on Tuesday, cautioning that a major escalation in U.S.–China trade disputes could slow global economic output and fuel inflation.

Confusion Over China’s Justifications

According to Greer, Monday’s talks revealed mixed signals from Chinese officials about the rationale behind their new export restrictions.

“They said the curbs were both retaliation for U.S. measures and related to national security,” Greer noted. “They can’t have it both ways.”

Washington views the policy as a strategic maneuver to control supply chains for semiconductors, defense systems, and renewable energy components—industries that rely heavily on rare earth elements sourced from China.

U.S. Leverage and Economic Pressure

Greer underscored that while both nations possess leverage, the U.S. holds significant economic tools should the dispute intensify.

“China’s economy is heavily export-driven,” he said. “They’re facing a property downturn, high unemployment, and declining consumer demand. We have our own export controls we could impose, but that’s not what we want. We want a stable, productive relationship.”

Analysts say Greer’s comments reflect a dual-track approach: combining firm economic pressure with an open door for negotiation to avoid a full-scale trade rupture.

Trump–Xi Meeting Still Tentative

Greer confirmed that plans remain in place for a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, though he stopped short of confirming whether it would proceed as scheduled.

“Right now, there’s a plan and a time set,” Greer said. “Whether it goes through or not, I don’t want to pre-commit—either ourselves or the Chinese. But it always makes sense for leaders to talk when they can.”

The meeting, expected to take place in mid-November, could mark a pivotal moment in resetting—or further straining—the world’s most important trade relationship.

Broader Implications

The rare earth dispute and potential tariff escalation are the latest flashpoints in a long-running rivalry between the two economic superpowers. The outcome could shape not only bilateral trade policy but also global manufacturing, clean energy development, and technology innovation for years to come.

For now, markets, businesses, and diplomats alike are watching closely as November 1 approaches—a deadline that could redefine the future of U.S.–China economic relations.