As the dust settles on the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, all attention is focused on the question that has dominated the state’s political discourse for weeks: who will be the next chief minister of Bihar? While the NDA, led by the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, has secured a resounding victory, the question of leadership has generated a flurry of speculation, amplified by a now-deleted social media post from the JD(U).

The Election Verdict and Its Implications

The 2025 Bihar assembly elections concluded with the NDA crossing the 200-seat mark in the 243-member Bihar Vidhan Sabha, marking one of the most decisive electoral victories in the state’s recent history. According to trends reported by the Election Commission of India, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 96 seats, while the JD(U) was leading in 85 constituencies. Smaller allies of the NDA, including Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Rashtriya) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM(S), added to the formidable numbers. The opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, was limited to 27 seats, a poor showing that underscored the electorate’s overwhelming support for the ruling coalition.

Despite the NDA’s numerical superiority, uncertainty has persisted over who will assume the chief minister’s post. Historically, the JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar has been the face of governance in Bihar, serving multiple terms over the past two decades. His political acumen, coupled with a record of welfare schemes and public administration, has made him a central figure in Bihar politics. Yet, the BJP, which has never had a chief minister in the state, now holds more seats than the JD(U), fueling speculation that the party may assert its claim to the CM’s chair.

The Deleted JD(U) Post and Its Fallout

Fueling this debate was a now-deleted post from the official JD(U) X account. The post had boldly declared: “Neither past nor future. Nitish Kumar was, is, and will remain the Chief Minister of Bihar.” The post, however, was removed shortly after publication, triggering widespread speculation in political circles and the media about whether internal negotiations were ongoing within the NDA on the CM question.

Political analysts suggest that the deletion of the post could indicate behind-the-scenes discussions between the BJP and JD(U), reflecting the delicate balance within the NDA alliance. While the JD(U) has long positioned Nitish Kumar as its undisputed leader, the BJP, as the larger party in terms of assembly seats, may seek a greater role in the government formation process.

Nitish Kumar: The Political Veteran

At 74 years old, Nitish Kumar is among the longest-serving chief ministers in Bihar’s history. He has held office for a majority of the last two decades, navigating a political landscape often dominated by identity politics, caste alignments, and coalition dynamics. Kumar has been at the helm through both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan phases, earning a reputation as a pragmatic and adaptable politician.

Nitish Kumar’s governance record has often been cited as a reason for the NDA’s electoral success. His administration has been credited with improving infrastructure, healthcare, education, and social welfare programs, earning him the moniker “Sushashan Babu” (Good Governance Man). Posters and public campaigns in Patna ahead of the elections frequently highlighted his achievements, with slogans such as “Tiger abhi zinda hai” and “25 se 30, phir se Nitish” appearing prominently. These campaigns reflected the JD(U)’s strategy to leverage Kumar’s personal popularity to secure votes, even as the BJP consolidated its own electoral base.

The NDA Equation

The NDA’s victory was not just a win for individual parties but for the coalition as a whole. Analysts note that while the BJP has emerged as the largest party in Bihar for the first time, the JD(U) remains a crucial partner in maintaining coalition harmony. The NDA’s allies, including smaller parties like the LJP(RV) and HAM(S), also play a role in determining the government formation strategy.

Several BJP leaders, including Home Minister Amit Shah and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, have publicly expressed support for Nitish Kumar remaining in office. Amit Shah has praised Kumar’s governance record, noting that the people’s mandate reflects approval of the state’s development trajectory. Meanwhile, the JD(U) has sought to position its leader as central to the NDA’s continued success in Bihar. Neeraj Kumar, a JD(U) spokesperson, emphasized that “Nitish Kumar ji will remain the chief minister as long as he wishes. His will, the people’s aspiration, and the NDA’s resolve are aligned.”

Political Speculation and Public Sentiment

Despite official statements, speculation persists, fueled by the dynamics of coalition politics. With the BJP holding more seats than the JD(U), questions arise over whether the party might eventually push for its own chief ministerial candidate, either immediately or during the next term. This speculation has been compounded by the deletion of the JD(U) X post, which some interpret as a signal that discussions are ongoing behind closed doors.

Public sentiment, however, appears to lean heavily in favor of Nitish Kumar. Campaign posters, rallies, and social media trends suggest that a significant portion of Bihar’s electorate continues to identify Kumar as the face of stable governance and development. Analysts argue that replacing him with a BJP leader could risk alienating voters who contributed to the NDA’s landslide victory.

Historical Context and Precedent

The 2025 election results echo previous instances in Bihar politics where the JD(U) and BJP had to negotiate leadership roles despite disparities in seat counts. In 2020, for example, Nitish Kumar retained the chief ministership even though the JD(U) won fewer seats than the BJP, demonstrating the BJP’s willingness to accommodate alliance partners to maintain stability. This historical precedent suggests that while BJP’s electoral strength has increased, it may still opt to support Kumar as CM to preserve coalition cohesion and long-term strategic interests.

Looking Ahead

As the NDA prepares to form the government, all eyes remain on Nitish Kumar. Political commentators predict that the next few days will be critical, as formal government formation procedures and internal discussions between coalition partners unfold. The decision on the chief ministership will not only determine the administrative trajectory of Bihar but could also influence coalition politics at the national level, especially given the JD(U)’s role in the NDA at the Centre.

Observers note that regardless of the final decision, the 2025 Bihar elections have reinforced the importance of performance-based politics. The NDA’s massive victory is widely interpreted as a mandate for development and governance, with voters signaling their preference for stability and continuity over identity-based or populist campaigns. In this context, Nitish Kumar’s leadership—if continued—may serve as a bridge between coalition partners and a symbol of governance-focused politics in the state.

Conclusion

With the NDA’s historic victory, Bihar stands at a political crossroads. While official statements suggest that Nitish Kumar will retain the chief ministership, the deletion of the JD(U) X post has left room for speculation, highlighting the delicate nature of coalition negotiations. Kumar’s experience, public approval, and political acumen position him as the natural choice, yet the BJP’s newfound strength introduces a dynamic that could influence the decision-making process.

For now, all eyes remain on Patna, as Bihar waits to see whether Nitish Kumar will take the oath for a record tenth term, continuing his legacy as one of the state’s most enduring political figures. The coming days are likely to provide clarity, not just for the chief ministership, but for the broader trajectory of Bihar’s governance and the strategic future of the NDA coalition.

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