The 2025 Bihar assembly elections have proven to be a sobering reality check for one of India’s most celebrated political strategists-turned-aspiring party leaders: Prashant Kishor. Widely regarded as a maven of electoral engineering, Kishor made a bold move earlier this year by floating the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), aiming to position it as a credible third alternative to the state’s dominant political duopoly. However, early counting trends suggest that the experiment may have failed spectacularly.

From Consultant to Party Leader: A Difficult Transition

Prashant Kishor’s journey in Indian politics has been largely defined by his strategic acumen. Over the past decade and a half, he has worked as a political consultant for a wide array of parties, cutting across ideological lines. His consultancy portfolio reads like a veritable who’s who of Indian politics: the BJP, JD(U), Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and the Trinamool Congress (TMC), among others.

Kishor first rose to national prominence as the architect of Narendra Modi’s Gujarat election campaigns, culminating in Modi’s 2012 re-election as Gujarat chief minister. His reputation reached new heights in 2014, when his group, Citizens for Accountable Governance (CAG), is credited with helping the BJP secure a decisive majority in the Lok Sabha elections. With such a track record, Kishor was widely regarded as a strategist capable of delivering electoral miracles.

Yet, the leap from behind-the-scenes strategist to front-line politician is fraught with challenges. It is one thing to shape narratives and design campaigns; it is quite another to build a political party from scratch and win the trust of voters. Kishor’s attempt to establish JSP as a viable third front in Bihar, which has been dominated for decades by the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, underscores just how formidable that task can be.

The Election Performance: Far Below Expectations

In the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, the Jan Suraaj Party fielded candidates for nearly all 243 constituencies, projecting itself as a fresh alternative to the entrenched political camps. Initial exit polls, however, had already tempered expectations, predicting fewer than five seats for the fledgling party. As counting progressed, the picture turned grimmer: by late afternoon, trends indicated that the JSP was likely to end up with zero or negligible representation.

Political analyst Deepak Kochgave commented on the outcome, noting, “Prashant Kishor has done his job in a different way. He has provided a cushion for deflecting the anti-NDA votes away from the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance.” Kochgave suggested that, much like Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM in the Seemanchal region, the JSP siphoned off votes that might otherwise have gone to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led coalition, contributing indirectly to the NDA’s landslide victory.

Kishor himself had framed the stakes in stark terms prior to the election, famously stating that the JSP would either be “arsh par ya farsh par” — on the sky or on the floor. He predicted that his party would either win fewer than ten seats or more than 150, with nothing in between. Unfortunately for Kishor, the party landed squarely on the floor, and the predictions for the JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar were equally off-target. Kishor had forecast that Kumar would not secure more than 25 seats and would be denied a return to the chief ministership — a prediction that, in hindsight, proved wildly inaccurate.

The Question of Political Exit

Kishor had previously vowed to quit politics if his predictions proved wrong. Now, with the JSP failing to make an electoral impact, speculation has swirled about whether he will honor that commitment. Social scientist DM Diwakar, who has closely monitored Kishor’s political trajectory, cautions against reading too much into the promise. “Not being an ideological person, he has served many parties, and it is difficult to say whether he is going to quit politics or not,” Diwakar noted. As of the latest reports, Kishor’s office has indicated that he may issue a statement later in the evening, leaving his political future officially undecided.

The Strategic Value of Failure

Despite the electoral debacle, some analysts argue that Kishor’s efforts may still carry strategic value. By entering the fray with the JSP, he arguably acted as a spoiler in certain constituencies, drawing votes away from the Mahagathbandhan and indirectly assisting the NDA’s victory. This may have been particularly true in Bihar’s politically sensitive Seemanchal region, where small shifts in vote share can have a disproportionate impact on outcomes.

Prabhat Singh, another political analyst, believes that Kishor remains a long-term player, regardless of the immediate electoral failure. “He will certainly tie up with the larger political parties for the Lok Sabha elections. He will not waste his three-year-long investment in Bihar,” Singh said, highlighting Kishor’s ability to pivot and leverage setbacks for future political positioning.

Kishor’s Political Persona

Prashant Kishor is not a conventional politician. He has cultivated a persona as a meticulous, data-driven strategist, a master of micro-targeting, and a campaign innovator. He is known for blending quantitative analysis with political messaging, a combination that has yielded dramatic results in the past. However, success as a consultant does not always translate into electoral victories as a candidate or party leader. Voters often prioritize local connect, party loyalty, and ideological narratives over managerial competence.

Kishor’s challenge in Bihar was compounded by the dominance of the NDA and the enduring appeal of Nitish Kumar. For decades, Kumar has been the face of development and governance in Bihar, cultivating a loyal voter base across caste and community lines. This made it difficult for a newcomer, regardless of strategic acumen, to break through.

Lessons and Long-Term Implications

The JSP’s performance underscores the complexities of converting political consultancy into electoral success. Kishor’s venture highlights several key lessons for aspiring political entrepreneurs:

1. Ground Presence Matters: While strategy and messaging are crucial, voters respond to sustained grassroots engagement, local networks, and visible leadership.
2. Timing and Context: Entering an election dominated by entrenched political alliances requires not just a compelling narrative, but also careful calibration to local realities.
3. Risk Management: High-stakes predictions, such as Kishor’s “arsh ya farsh” framing, can backfire and have reputational consequences if not realized.
4. Long-Term Positioning: Failure in a debut election does not necessarily end a political career. Strategists like Kishor can leverage their networks, expertise, and visibility for future campaigns and alliances.

The Road Ahead

While the 2025 Bihar elections may have been a setback, Kishor’s political journey is far from over. His long-standing reputation as a campaign maestro, coupled with his ability to navigate complex electoral landscapes, ensures that he will remain a key figure in Indian politics. Analysts predict that he may recalibrate his strategy, potentially aligning with larger national parties in future elections or focusing on strategic advisory roles rather than front-line contestation.

As political observers note, the BJP-led NDA’s massive victory and the Mahagathbandhan’s decimation in Bihar offer fertile ground for Kishor to position himself as a kingmaker in upcoming electoral cycles. Whether he chooses to step back temporarily or remain in the political arena will likely depend on calculations of influence, legacy, and opportunity.

Conclusion

Prashant Kishor’s venture into active politics through the Jan Suraaj Party has not yielded the electoral success he envisioned. The party’s failure to make a dent in the Bihar assembly elections highlights the challenges of transforming consultancy expertise into grassroots electoral victories. Yet, Kishor’s strategic mind, political networks, and experience ensure that this setback is unlikely to mark the end of his influence.

For Kishor, the real test now is whether he can translate this defeat into lessons, reposition himself, and leverage the JSP’s presence for future political engagement. In Indian politics, resilience often matters as much as immediate victory, and for Prashant Kishor, the road ahead remains open — even if it begins, for now, from the floor.