Nigeria has the potential to increase its export earnings by up to $3.9 billion if it fully exploits untapped global demand for high-value products, according to the International Trade Centre (ITC) Export Potential Map.

The report shows that Nigeria’s total export potential stands at $7.6 billion, driven primarily by cocoa, urea, cashew nuts, and increasingly, coffee.

Cocoa beans remain Nigeria’s strongest export performer, with the largest gap between potential and actual exports. Cocoa alone represents an unrealised opportunity worth $749 million, accounting for 19 percent of the country’s untapped export potential. Cashew nuts (in shell) and urea are also highlighted as high-potential commodities, underscoring Nigeria’s competitiveness in agricultural and agro-industrial products.

A significant new frontier identified in the report is unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee (HS 090111). ITC notes that coffee offers one of the best avenues for export diversification alongside copper cathodes and frozen fish.

Global demand for coffee is surging, and Nigeria “has closest export links with Japan,” while the United States represents the largest demand potential. Japan currently imports $1.4 billion, Germany $4 billion, and the U.S. $5.8 billion worth of this category of coffee—all applying zero-percent tariff to Nigerian coffee, enhancing its competitiveness.

Other promising markets include the Netherlands ($843 million), Italy ($2.2 billion), and Belgium ($1.7 billion), all with no tariff barriers, while South Korea applies a modest 2% tariff.

ITC emphasized that coffee is strategically important for Nigeria’s export expansion, while other commodities like dried and shelled beans (Vigna mungo/radiata) and precious metal jewellery also show strong international demand.

Responding to the report, Dr. Victor Iyama, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria (CAN), said coffee remains a key cash crop that could significantly boost the nation’s foreign exchange earnings.

With cocoa, cashew, urea, and coffee showing substantial room for growth, the ITC report positions Nigeria to unlock billions in additional export revenue if investment, logistics, and trade policies are aligned with global demand.