A close ally of Bosnia’s former Serb Republic leader Milorad Dodik has won the snap presidential election in the Republika Srpska, according to preliminary results released by the election authorities. The victory marks a significant moment in the politically complex Balkan territory following Dodik’s removal from office over his separatist policies.

Sinisa Karan Secures Narrow Victory

Sinisa Karan, a member of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) party, won 50.89 percent of the vote, narrowly defeating his main rival Branko Blanusa of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS), who received 47.81 percent, according to Jovan Kalaba, president of the election commission.

The results reflect 92.87 percent of votes counted, with a turnout of 35.78 percent of the roughly 1.2 million eligible voters. Karan’s presidential mandate will last for less than a year, as a general election is scheduled for October 2026.

Dodik Celebrates Karan’s Win

Former President Milorad Dodik, who was ousted and politically banned for six years, attended the SNSD headquarters in Banja Luka to celebrate Karan’s victory. Dodik described the win as “unquestionable” and expressed his intention to remain influential in Republika Srpska politics.

Karan, who currently serves as the Serb Republic minister of scientific and technological development, pledged to continue Dodik’s policies “with ever greater force.” He emphasized that the election outcome represented a triumph for the Serb people:

“As always, when the times were difficult, the Serb people have won.”

Opposition Challenges and Election Irregularities

The SDS has requested a repetition of voting at three polling stations, citing “major election irregularities.” Despite these claims, preliminary results indicate a tight but decisive win for the SNSD candidate.

Background: Dodik’s Political Ban

The snap election was necessitated by Dodik’s removal in August 2025. A Bosnian court convicted him of disobeying the orders of the international High Representative for Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, who oversees the implementation of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords.

Dodik had repeatedly clashed with Schmidt, challenging the legality of decisions affecting Republika Srpska, a Serb-controlled entity. Although banned from holding office, Dodik avoided jail by paying a fine and stepped aside as president, while retaining control of the SNSD party.

Bosnia’s Complex Political Landscape

Republika Srpska is one of two semi-autonomous entities within Bosnia and Herzegovina, the other being controlled jointly by Bosniaks and Croats. The current political system was established by the Dayton Accords, which ended the 1992-95 Bosnian war that claimed over 100,000 lives and displaced millions.

The war began after Bosnia declared independence from Yugoslavia, prompting armed resistance from Bosnian Serbs who sought to carve out territory and eventually join Serbia. Dodik has remained a vocal advocate for the eventual separation of Republika Srpska from Bosnia, keeping the region at the center of ethnic and political tensions.

Karan’s Promise: Stability and Democratic Governance

Before the election, Karan stressed that democratic elections were a way to strengthen peace and stability in Republika Srpska. He promised to strengthen the institutions of the Serb Republic and maintain continuity with Dodik’s policies, signaling both political loyalty and the SNSD’s continued influence in regional governance.

Dodik reinforced this alliance, telling voters:

“I will remain with you to fight for our political goals, and Karan’s victory will be my victory too.”

Implications for the Balkans

Karan’s win ensures that Dodik-aligned policies continue to influence Republika Srpska’s governance, even under international scrutiny. The election outcome may impact Bosnia’s broader political dynamics, including relations with international oversight bodies, neighboring Serbia, and EU and NATO engagements.