The United States has recorded the lowest number of mass killings in two decades in 2025, according to a comprehensive database maintained by The Associated Press, USA Today, and Northeastern University. Despite the decline, experts warn that gun violence continues to pose a serious threat nationwide.

A recent tragedy in Stockton, California, where a family gathering ended with four people killed, marked the 17th mass killing reported this year. While this number could rise as the year concludes, it represents a nearly 59 percent decrease from 2019, when the country saw a record 41 mass killings.

Understanding Mass Killings

The database defines mass killings as incidents in which four or more individuals are intentionally killed within a 24-hour period, excluding the offender. Researchers rely on police reports, FBI data, media coverage, and court documents to track these incidents.

James Alan Fox, criminologist at Northeastern University and database manager, explained that the 2025 decline—down about 24 percent from 2024—may reflect a “regression to the mean,” indicating a return to average crime levels after unusual spikes in previous years. “Will 2026 see a decline? I wouldn’t bet on it,” Fox cautioned.

Experts Weigh In on the Decline

James Densley, professor at Metropolitan State University in Minnesota, noted that because mass killings are a rare and volatile phenomenon, even small changes in numbers can appear dramatic. “A year with fewer incidents doesn’t mean the problem is solved,” he added.

Improvements in emergency response and trauma care may also have contributed to the reduction in deaths. Densley highlighted a shooting in Minnesota in August during a school Mass where two children were killed and over 20 injured. He explained that effective first-responder interventions and proximity to major children’s hospitals likely prevented more fatalities.

Eric Madfis, criminal justice professor at the University of Washington-Tacoma, emphasized that although deaths and mass killings may have decreased, the United States still experiences far higher rates of gun-related mass violence than any other country in the world. In 2025, approximately 82 percent of mass killings involved firearms.

Historical Context and Ongoing Concerns

Since the database was launched in 2006, 3,234 people have died in US mass killings, with 81 percent of victims killed by guns. While the dip in 2025 offers a hopeful glimpse of improvement, experts stress that gun violence remains a major public safety concern.

Factors that may influence future trends include overall declines in homicide and violent crime following the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the effectiveness of mass casualty preparedness, law enforcement interventions, and gun safety measures.

Criminologists caution that even with lower numbers, mass shootings continue to devastate communities, prompting calls for continued investment in prevention strategies, emergency preparedness, and firearm regulation.