Tennessee voters are heading to the polls in a crucial special congressional election that could significantly impact the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The stakes are high as Republicans hold a narrow 219-213 majority, and a single seat flip could signal broader trends leading into next year’s national elections.

---

Key Candidates in the Tennessee Special Election

The race centers on Republican Matt Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, and Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn. Both candidates are vying to fill the vacancy left by former Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July. The contested district includes significant portions of Middle Tennessee and parts of Nashville, making it a politically strategic area.

Van Epps has strong support from high-profile endorsements, including former President Donald Trump and ex-Representative Mark Green. In contrast, Behn has focused her campaign on addressing cost-of-living issues, healthcare, and local economic concerns, appealing to moderate and younger voters.

---

Historical Context: Republican Stronghold Under Threat

The district has traditionally leaned Republican, with Trump winning it by 22 points in the 2024 presidential election. However, recent trends suggest that Democrats have been outperforming expectations in special elections nationwide. According to recent polling by Emerson College Polling/The Hill, the Tennessee race could be tighter than anticipated, reflecting growing political competitiveness in off-cycle elections.

Democrats have exceeded their 2024 margins by an average of 18 points in special congressional elections this year, including races in Florida, Virginia, and Arizona. Additionally, Democrats recently reclaimed the Virginia governor’s mansion, and California voters approved a ballot initiative to redraw congressional maps, potentially flipping several Republican-held districts.

---

Campaign Finance and Party Strategies

As of November 12, Behn outraised Van Epps by nearly $240,000, according to federal election filings, demonstrating strong fundraising momentum for the Democratic candidate. Both parties have invested heavily, with super PACs funneling millions of dollars into the race.

Republicans have attempted to cast Behn as a radical leftist, citing since-deleted 2020 tweets in which she advocated for defunding the police. Behn has downplayed these past comments, emphasizing that voters are more concerned with immediate issues like rising healthcare costs, inflation, and economic stability.

---

Broader Implications for the U.S. House

This Tennessee special election is only one of several key races that could reshape the narrow House majority. Upcoming vacancies include:

• Georgia: Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene will vacate her seat on January 5, 2026.
• Texas: A special runoff election will be held on January 31 to replace the late Representative Sylvester Turner.
• New Jersey: Voters will select a replacement for House Democrat Mikie Sherrill on April 16, following her departure.

Each of these elections carries the potential to shift party control, highlighting the fragile nature of the current Republican majority.

---

Voter Concerns and National Issues

Polling indicates that cost-of-living concerns, healthcare access, and economic stability remain top priorities for voters. A recent 43-day federal government shutdown—prompted by funding disputes—underscored the urgency of these issues. Senate Democrats eventually agreed to end the shutdown in exchange for a vote on a new healthcare bill, aimed at extending Affordable Care Act subsidies for 24 million Americans.

The Tennessee race is therefore not just about local representation; it serves as a bellwether for national political sentiment leading into 2026.

---

Why the Tennessee Election Matters

With the House majority razor-thin, even a single seat flip could influence key legislation and congressional oversight. Recent events, such as the delay in administering the oath of office to Democrat Adelita Grijalva of Arizona, highlight the critical importance of every vote in the chamber. Special elections like Tennessee’s demonstrate how seemingly local races can have national consequences, affecting legislation on healthcare, justice, and federal funding priorities.

As voters cast their ballots, political analysts will be closely watching whether Republicans can maintain their narrow majority or whether Democrats will make inroads ahead of next year’s midterms.