Washington, D.C. — A classified Pentagon assessment warns that China would likely defeat the United States in a military conflict over Taiwan, citing America’s reliance on costly, sophisticated weapons and Beijing’s ability to mass-produce cheaper, highly effective systems. The report, known as the “Overmatch Brief,” reveals troubling vulnerabilities for US forces in the western Pacific.

US Forces Vulnerable to Chinese Missiles and Submarines

The assessment indicates that even the US’s most advanced assets, such as the $13 billion USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, are highly susceptible to Chinese attacks. In wargames referenced in the briefing, hypersonic missiles and diesel-electric submarines have repeatedly neutralized US naval power, with carriers and tactical aircraft sustaining heavy losses.

Eric Gomez, a research fellow at the Taiwan Security Monitor, described Pentagon exercises in which the US lost over 100 fifth-generation aircraft, multiple destroyers, submarines, and carriers during simulated Taiwan conflict scenarios. “The high cost was sobering,” Gomez said, noting that the wargames highlighted gaps in US strategy and firepower.

China’s Military Advantages

China has significantly expanded its arsenal of short-, medium-, and intermediate-range missiles, including the ship-destroying YJ-17 hypersonic missile. Beijing’s ability to produce large numbers of effective weapons contrasts sharply with the US, where defense production is slower and far costlier.

The report also highlights cyber threats, with Chinese state-sponsored groups reportedly compromising US power grids, communications systems, and military networks, further complicating defense operations.

Pentagon Strategy and US Defense Challenges

Despite these risks, the Pentagon continues plans to build nine additional Ford-class carriers and is investing $1 billion to produce 340,000 small drones over the next two years. Officials stress the importance of maintaining “military overmatch,” the principle that US capabilities must deter Chinese aggression by remaining superior in force.

However, defense experts note the US is hampered by low defense spending—approximately 3.4% of GDP, the lowest in nearly 80 years—and logistical vulnerabilities in maintaining supplies of missiles, artillery shells, and other munitions during a prolonged conflict.

Taiwan’s Strategic Importance

Taiwan’s location and its role in global trade make it a critical security interest for the United States. About one-third of global shipping passes through the South China Sea, making control of the island strategically vital.

President Xi Jinping has labeled Taiwan’s reunification with China a “historical inevitability” and is reportedly preparing the PLA for potential amphibious operations by 2027. US policy, historically framed around “strategic ambiguity,” avoids explicit commitments to defend Taiwan but continues to supply weapons to bolster its self-defense capabilities.

Former President Donald Trump has criticized the financial burden of protecting Taiwan, suggesting the island should contribute to US defense costs. Nevertheless, the US continues to view Taiwan as a key check on Chinese expansionism in the Asia-Pacific region.

Growing US-China Arms Race

The report illustrates an ongoing, frantic arms race between the US and China, with both nations striving to prevent the other from achieving decisive military superiority. Analysts warn that failing to maintain overmatch could embolden Beijing, with serious implications for regional stability and US influence in Asia.