Russia could launch a military attack on a NATO member country within the next five years, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has warned in a stark new statement. Speaking in Berlin, Rutte urged European nations to prepare for a scale of conflict comparable to the world wars, emphasizing the growing threats posed by Russia’s ongoing military buildup and covert operations.

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Rutte’s Warning: Preparing for a Major Conflict

“Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies,” Rutte said, highlighting the growing risk of hybrid warfare that combines cyber-attacks, disinformation, and drone incursions near military bases and airports in NATO countries.

He stressed that supporting Ukraine remains a crucial guarantee for European security, warning that a Russia-dominated Ukraine could dramatically increase the likelihood of an armed attack against NATO members.

“Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with NATO,” Rutte said.

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Russia’s Military Production and Western Preparedness

Russia’s economy has been on a war footing for over three years, producing a massive arsenal of tanks, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, and drones. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Moscow produces approximately 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 Lancet drones, and 50 artillery pieces every month.

In contrast, analysts note that Western Europe would take years to match Russia’s mass-production capabilities. While the UK, France, and Germany are boosting defense spending and reviving voluntary military service programs for young adults, NATO’s overall readiness remains behind Russia’s wartime production levels.

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Hybrid Warfare and Ongoing Threats

Beyond conventional forces, Russia has increased hybrid or grey-zone warfare tactics in recent months. This includes cyber-attacks, misinformation campaigns, and drone activity near strategic locations in NATO countries.

Rutte cautioned that while these events are concerning, they are minor compared to the catastrophic consequences of a full-scale military attack on NATO territory, which could involve territorial seizures, mass casualties, and humanitarian crises.

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The Importance of Increased Defense Spending

Under pressure from international leaders, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, NATO members have pledged to increase military budgets and production capabilities. Rutte emphasized that allied defense spending must rise rapidly to ensure NATO forces are adequately equipped to deter Russian aggression.

“Allied defense spending and production must rise rapidly; our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe,” he said.

Rutte’s warning underscores the urgency for European nations to recognize the proximity of conflict and avoid complacency, particularly given the lessons of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

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Ukraine: The Frontline of European Security

Rutte repeatedly referenced the ongoing war in Ukraine, urging nations to take the lessons of the conflict seriously:

“Listen to the sirens across Ukraine, look at the bodies pulled from the rubble.”

He argued that the Ukrainian crisis is not isolated, warning that unchecked aggression could eventually threaten NATO territories directly.