U.S. consumer prices increased at a slower-than-expected pace in November 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but households continued to face high costs for essentials like beef, coffee, and electricity. Analysts caution that the data may not fully reflect underlying price pressures due to gaps caused by the 43-day federal government shutdown, which delayed data collection for October and early November.

November CPI and Inflation Trends

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, down from 3.0% in September and below economists’ forecast of 3.1%. Monthly CPI data was not published because the shutdown disrupted regular surveys, creating a “Swiss-cheese” effect in the dataset.

Adjusted for volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 2.6% year-over-year, the slowest pace since March 2021. Over the two-month period ending in November, the CPI increased 0.2%, reflecting holiday discounts and inventory adjustments by retailers.

Economists warned that the report’s moderation may understate inflation, as it relied on a carry-forward method for missing October data, biasing results downward.

Rising Costs for Key Goods and Services

Despite the headline slowdown, prices for many everyday items rose sharply:

• Beef prices jumped 15.8% year-over-year, with ground beef up 14.9%.
• Coffee prices surged 18.8%.
• Electricity costs increased 6.9%, the largest rise since April 2023.

Some prices, however, fell, including eggs (-13.2%), while gasoline rose modestly 0.9% and new vehicle prices were up 0.6%, as automakers absorbed some tariff-related costs.

The inflationary pressures from import tariffs, imposed by President Trump, have persisted, although recent rollbacks on items like beef, bananas, and coffee are expected to gradually ease consumer costs.

Political and Economic Implications

President Donald Trump, who campaigned in 2024 on reducing inflation, has faced continued political scrutiny as households struggle with affordability. White House officials hailed the November CPI as “astonishingly good,” though economists caution the unusual data collection period makes it less reliable.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that policymakers would approach the data “carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye,” awaiting clearer trends before adjusting interest rate policy. The Fed’s benchmark overnight rate was recently cut to 3.50%-3.75%, with officials signaling that borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the short term.

Labor Market Indicators

Weekly jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 224,000, suggesting continued stability in the labor market. However, continuing claims rose by 67,000 to 1.897 million, reflecting persistent challenges in job matching and tepid hiring.

Analysts noted that slower wage growth and moderation in services inflation are likely to contribute to a gradual easing of price pressures in 2026, despite volatility in food and energy costs.

Market Reaction

Financial markets reacted cautiously:

• Stocks rose modestly, reflecting optimism over moderating inflation.
• Treasury yields fell while the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies.

Economists expect inflation to pick up again in December, as higher energy demand from data centers and ongoing tariff pass-throughs continue to influence prices.