Over the past 10 months, Russian military losses in Ukraine have surged at a rate unprecedented since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, according to BBC analysis. This rise comes amid renewed efforts for a peace deal, pushed forward by the administration of US President Donald Trump in 2025.

Analysis shows a 40% increase in published obituaries of Russian soldiers compared with the previous year. BBC researchers, in collaboration with independent media outlet Mediazona and volunteer groups, have confirmed almost 160,000 Russian deaths on the battlefield. Military experts believe this figure represents 45-65% of actual losses, suggesting total fatalities could be between 243,000 and 352,000.

US-Led Peace Talks Influence Casualty Patterns

The year 2025 saw fluctuations in casualty reporting that corresponded closely with diplomatic events. January began with relatively low numbers of published obituaries. By February, following a direct conversation between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding ending the war, the number of obituaries rose. Another spike occurred in August, coinciding with the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, marking a major diplomatic moment for Russia.

October and November saw the highest daily averages of reported deaths—322 obituaries per day, double the 2024 rate—during periods of stalled diplomacy, including the shelving of a second planned summit and the US presenting a 28-point peace proposal.

The Human Stories Behind the Statistics

Among those lost in 2025 was Murat Mukashev, a young activist who initially resisted military service. Mukashev, a vocal critic of the Kremlin, had participated in rallies supporting LGBT rights, opposing police violence, and advocating for the release of Alexei Navalny. After being charged with a 10-year sentence for alleged drug offences, Mukashev eventually joined the Russian army, encouraged by expectations that peace talks would soon end the war. Tragically, he was killed in June 2025 during combat in the Kharkiv region.

BBC analysis shows that the majority of Russian fatalities in 2025 were volunteer recruits, rather than professional soldiers. Volunteers now account for one-third of deaths, up from 15% the previous year.

Recruitment Efforts and Kremlin Strategy

The Kremlin has relied on recruitment incentives, including high salaries and financial support, to maintain troop numbers. Local governments have aggressively recruited, offering contracts that promise up to 10 million roubles (£95,000/$128,000) per year, though contracts are automatically renewed until the war ends. By October 2025, 336,000 new recruits had signed up, offsetting battlefield losses without resorting to large-scale mandatory mobilization.

Despite the heavy casualties, NATO estimates that Russia continues to replenish its forces faster than losses occur. Secretary-General Mark Rutte noted that 25,000 Russian soldiers are killed every month, while official recruitment figures show the Kremlin is still attracting thousands of new soldiers.

Ukraine’s Continuing Losses

Ukraine has also sustained significant casualties. President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated 46,000 battlefield deaths and 380,000 injuries as of February 2025. Independent analysis suggests the total number of Ukrainian deaths could be as high as 140,000, with tens of thousands missing in action or captured.

The ongoing conflict continues to shape the geopolitical landscape, with diplomatic negotiations, frontline casualties, and volunteer recruitment strategies playing crucial roles in the war’s trajectory.