Nigeria is ramping up efforts to expand sugarcane production as global sugar output rises and the country remains heavily reliant on imports. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global sugar production is expected to increase to 189.32 million tons in the 2025/26 season, up from 180.75 million tons in 2024/25—a growth of 4.73%.

Data from the National Sugar Development Council (NSDC) and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service show that Nigeria’s sugarcane harvested area has grown from about 75,000 hectares in 2020 to 100,000 hectares by 2025. Over the same period, raw sugarcane production more than doubled, rising from 1.53 million metric tons to approximately 3.33 million metric tons, reflecting significant investment in the sector despite ongoing processing limitations.

The NSDC noted that this growth is driven by Phase II of the National Sugar Master Plan (NSMP II), launched by the Federal Government. The plan aims to increase domestic sugar production to two million metric tons annually by 2033, supported by an estimated $3.5 billion in investment across the sugar value chain.

NSMP II is designed to achieve sugar self-sufficiency, support ethanol and power production, generate employment, and attract long-term private investment. At the recent launch of the Sugarcane Outgrower Development Programme (SODP), NSDC Executive Secretary Kamar Bakrin emphasized that the initiative is central to achieving these goals.

“The SODP aims to boost local sugarcane cultivation, reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imports, and create inclusive economic growth by integrating outgrower farmers into the supply chain,” Bakrin said.

The programme targets rural participation to scale production, improve livelihoods, and strengthen linkages between smallholders and industrial processors. According to NSDC Head of Out-Grower Management, Lade Offurum, the programme will engage three categories of farmers: agribusinesses and commercial operators managing 50–500+ hectares, organised farming cooperatives with 30–50 hectares, and groups of individual farmers cultivating clusters of at least 30 hectares. The council has earmarked 150,000 hectares nationwide for outgrower development, supporting large-scale production of sugar, ethanol, electricity, and animal feed, with stricter performance benchmarks for operators like Dangote Sugar and BUA Foods.

Several states have emerged as key growth hubs. Niger State plans to develop 148,000 hectares for six sugar factories by 2027, in partnership with Niger Foods and international firms including Uttam Sucrotech. Once operational, the facilities are expected to produce 2.5 million tons of sugar and 250 million litres of ethanol annually. In Kwara State, BUA Foods’ Lafiagi Sugar Company (LASUCO) project is nearing completion and is set to become West Africa’s largest integrated sugar factory, crushing 10,000 tons of cane per day and producing 220,000 metric tons of refined sugar and 20 million litres of ethanol annually.

Dangote Sugar is expanding its operations across multiple states, including the Numan refinery in Adamawa and the 78,000-hectare Tunga Sugar Project in Nasarawa. Legacy Sugar is also launching a new greenfield project in Adamawa targeting 100,000 metric tons annually. Other developments include UMZA Sugar in Bauchi, GNAAL Sugar in Taraba, and Brent Sugar in Oyo State, all contributing to domestic output growth.

Despite these gains, industrial sugar production remains low. Between 2020 and 2025, output fluctuated from roughly 38,600 to 105,000 metric tons, while only 30% of sugarcane is processed in factories; the remainder is consumed locally as chewing cane or artisanal syrup. Industrial production fell by 35% in 2023 due to macroeconomic pressures, including naira depreciation and rising operational costs.

Currently, Nigeria produces 40,000–80,000 metric tons of sugar annually against a national demand of around 1.7 million metric tons, meaning over 95% of consumption is met through imports. The success of NSMP II and related projects is therefore crucial to narrowing this gap and reducing the country’s vulnerability to global sugar price fluctuations.