Kyiv, Ukraine – Russian war casualties are reportedly rising to levels that may be unsustainable, according to Ukrainian military and presidential statements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a January 6, 2026 address that Russian losses have surged dramatically over recent months.
“In December, 35,000 occupiers were eliminated – confirmed with video footage,” Zelenskyy said. “In November, 30,000, and in October, 26,000 were eliminated.”
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii confirmed the figures via Telegram, noting that these estimates only include documented losses. Actual casualties could be higher. He highlighted that December 2025 marked a historic point where Ukraine’s unmanned systems neutralized nearly as many Russian troops as Russia recruited in the same month.
Rising Russian Mortality and Recruitment Pressures
Russia has primarily relied on volunteer contract soldiers rather than conscripts. As of December 2025, the country reportedly reached a recruitment cap of 403,000 soldiers, averaging about 33,583 per month, with plans to slightly increase recruitment in 2026.
Ukraine’s casualty reports suggest the current recruitment model may soon be insufficient, potentially forcing Russia to deploy active reserves, a move that carries both military and political risks. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed that reserves in Belgorod had begun receiving heavy equipment—from howitzers to thermobaric weapons—indicating preparations for active combat roles.
Ukraine estimates that approximately 420,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded in 2025, reflecting a steep mortality rate on the front lines.
Zelenskyy Reshuffles Defence Ministry
In response to these challenges and to accelerate technological warfare, Zelenskyy appointed Mykhailo Fedorov as Defence Minister, replacing Denys Shmyal, who moved to the energy portfolio. Fedorov’s appointment underscores Ukraine’s focus on drones and digitalized defence operations, after achieving a production target of 1,000 intercept drones per day in 2025.
“We clearly understand what we will have to face in the near future,” Syrskii said. “We have set the task of forming special units designed to effectively detect and destroy enemy high-tech drone units and supply points.”
Russian Tactical Shifts
Russia has introduced new drone warfare tactics, including fibre-optic drones resistant to jamming, allowing it to target supply lines and create kill zones up to 15km behind the front lines. These strategies contributed to Russian advances in Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine.
Additionally, Russia moved from large mechanized assaults to small-team infiltration tactics, deploying teams of two soldiers to establish bridgeheads before reinforcements arrive. Ukraine has intensified its training to counter these high-tech threats.
Long-Range Strikes Intensify
At the start of 2026, Russia escalated long-range drone and missile attacks, targeting civilian infrastructure. In the first week of January:
- 789 drones and 10 missiles were launched at Ukrainian cities.
- Ukraine reportedly intercepted 83% of drones.
During 2025, Russia launched 54,000 long-range drones and 1,900 missiles, significantly increasing aerial pressure on Ukraine. Russia even began deploying Shahed drones equipped with MANPADS to counter Ukrainian drone-hunting aircraft.
Information Warfare
Russia also engaged in information operations, claiming that Ukraine attacked Putin’s residence near Lake Valdai and a bar in Kherson. Ukraine denied these reports. Analysts suggest that these claims aim to prepare domestic and international audiences for further escalation.
Summary
Ukraine reports unsustainable Russian casualties, the deployment of reserves, and new high-tech tactics, while Zelenskyy reshuffles the Defence Ministry to enhance drone production and countermeasures. The conflict continues to evolve into a high-tech, long-range warfare scenario, with rising stakes for both military personnel and civilians.
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