Nigeria’s agricultural sector enters 2026 at a pivotal crossroads, as government policies, state-led investments, and private capital face the ultimate test: translating resilience into lasting food security, DANIEL ESSIET reports.

After years of climate shocks, insecurity, and rising production costs, the sector remains a central pillar of economic stability, averaging about 5% annual growth between 2017 and 2023. However, analysts warn that the year ahead will reveal whether these gains can be sustained, or if structural challenges will continue to drive price volatility and supply disruptions.

Policy optimism vs. market realities

Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, highlighted gains in staples like rice, maize, and climate-resilient wheat, noting that improved output could moderate prices and ease inflationary pressure. Yet independent market forecasts suggest persistent volatility, particularly for maize, rice, sorghum, and soybeans, due to rising logistics costs, insecurity in production belts, and expensive fertiliser and agrochemical inputs. Experts describe a widening “credibility gap” between official statistics and real market dynamics.

Climate and insecurity: Twin threats

Climate change continues to be the single most destabilising factor. Flooding affects 17–18 states annually, while prolonged dry spells threaten crops in the North-Central and North-West. Pest infestations, notably the Fall Army Worm, have spread across 26 states, compounding crop losses of up to 60% in some regions.

Insecurity further disrupts production. Borno, Zamfara, and Katsina alone have tens of thousands of hectares of farmland abandoned due to insurgency and banditry, while livestock losses in the North-West reach 40% in some areas.

State-level interventions driving recovery

Despite these risks, several states are emerging as engines of recovery:

• Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, and parts of Borno are benefiting from investments in mechanisation, irrigation, certified seeds, and extension services.
• Jigawa State has launched multi-million-dollar agricultural parks, livestock programs, and agro-machinery projects, with 90% of its population relying on agriculture.
• Kano’s Agro-Pastoral Development Project provides farmers with tractors, harvesters, and processing facilities.
• Middle Belt states like Benue, Kogi, and Taraba remain vital for yams and cassava, with progress dependent on flood mitigation and dry-season irrigation.
• Southern states, including Ogun, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, and Edo, are focusing on value addition in poultry, cocoa, oil palm, and agro-processing. Lagos consolidates its role as a food processing and logistics hub, with investments in cold-chain systems and digital agriculture.

Livestock and input markets

The livestock sub-sector is poised for rapid growth, supported by the National Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy, with Nigeria’s cattle population nearing 65 million and poultry exceeding 800 million. Growth will depend on disease management, security, and access to finance.

Input markets remain a critical vulnerability, with fertiliser prices subject to global volatility. The Akwa Ibom Fertiliser Complex, a $1.5 billion joint venture between NSIA and OCP Africa, aims to produce ammonia, DAP, and NPK fertilisers domestically. This project is expected to reduce import dependence, stabilise prices, and enhance farm yields, while generating 500 direct and 20,000 indirect jobs.

Private sector momentum

Dangote Fertiliser is expanding its operations and plans to list on the Nigerian Exchange, positioning Nigeria to become a global leader in urea production. Across Africa, companies like Yara, ICL, and OCP are investing in new facilities and decentralised plants to deliver affordable, eco-friendly fertilisers to smallholder farmers.

Food system innovation

Beyond production, Lagos is evolving into a hub for food system innovation, integrating automated processing, precision agriculture, and digital technology to reduce waste, cut costs, and strengthen urban food supply.

Looking ahead: opportunities and risks

Nigeria’s agricultural outlook for 2026 is neither uniformly bullish nor bleak. Success depends on the alignment of mechanisation, irrigation, extension services, security interventions, and affordable inputs. Without these, climate shocks, insecurity, and rising costs could undermine policy efforts.

As Prof. Emmanuel Ikani, Executive Director of the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services, notes, the country urgently needs mechanisation programs, pest control, affordable inputs, and improved early warning systems to prevent recurring crises.

Ultimately, 2026 will test whether Nigeria can build a truly resilient, data-driven, climate-smart agricultural economy. Its success will shape not only food availability and prices, but also broader economic growth, inflation trends, and social stability for years to come.