LONDON – Economic confrontation between nations has overtaken armed conflict as the top global risk in the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2026 annual risk perception survey, highlighting how trade disputes, resource controls, and geopolitical rivalries are increasingly shaping the international agenda.

The survey, which included responses from over 1,300 experts and leaders from academia, business, government, international organizations, and civil society, revealed a sharp shift in global risk perceptions. While environmental concerns fell in the short-term rankings, worries about the long-term consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) governance rose significantly.

Geoeconomic Tensions Take Center Stage

Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the WEF, cited rising tariffs, foreign investment restrictions, and tighter supply controls on critical minerals as examples of what the forum calls “geoeconomic confrontation.” She described this form of conflict as:

“…when economic policy tools become essentially weaponry rather than a basis of cooperation.”

The WEF survey highlights how U.S. trade policies, including former President Donald Trump’s “America First” approach, have contributed to escalating trade tensions with China, which dominates critical minerals and remains the world’s second-largest economy. Such measures have amplified global concerns about economic coercion replacing traditional armed conflict as the most immediate risk.

Shifts in Environmental Risk Perceptions

Short-term perceptions of environmental risks have declined in the 2026 survey. For example:

• Extreme weather events fell from 2nd to 4th place
• Pollution dropped from 6th to 9th
• Biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems fell seven and five positions, respectively

However, respondents still ranked environmental threats among the top three risks when considering a 10-year horizon, reflecting long-term concern about climate change and ecological stability.

AI Governance Concerns Rise

The survey also highlighted growing anxiety over adverse outcomes of AI technologies. While AI ranked 30th over a two-year horizon, it moved up to 5th place for the 10-year outlook.

Zahidi explained that the concern stems from insufficient AI governance, which could harm jobs, societal stability, and mental health, while also noting the increasing potential for AI to be used as a strategic or military tool.

Implications Ahead of Davos 2026

The WEF annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, set to start next week, will bring global leaders together to discuss these evolving risks. Economic confrontation, AI regulation, and climate resilience are expected to dominate the agenda.

President Donald Trump addressed global leaders ahead of the forum, signaling that his potential second term would prioritize domestic economic policy over traditional free-market norms, reinforcing concerns about geoeconomic competition shaping global trade and diplomacy.