BEIJING – Chinese imports from Canada fell sharply in 2025, marking the first decline since 2020, as Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares for a high-stakes visit to Beijing. The drop underscores the economic leverage China wields over Canada and highlights the challenges Ottawa faces in managing bilateral relations.

Chinese customs data released Wednesday showed that imports from Canada tumbled 10.4% year-on-year to $41.7 billion, down from a record $46.6 billion in 2024. The last decline occurred in 2020, when pandemic-related disruptions caused a staggering 22.3% drop in Canadian exports to China.

Mark Carney’s First Visit to China Since 2017

Carney is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday, marking the first visit by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. The visit is expected to focus on repairing a years-long rift in bilateral relations, which worsened in 2024 after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau followed U.S. tariffs by imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Carney emphasized the importance of the trip on social media:

“China is our second-largest trading partner, and the world’s second-largest economy. A pragmatic and constructive relationship between our nations will create greater stability, security, and prosperity on both sides of the Pacific.”

Background: Strained Bilateral Relations

Carney’s visit follows a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last October. While the encounter produced no major breakthroughs—Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola remain in place—both leaders agreed to advance bilateral engagement. Xi personally invited Carney to Beijing, highlighting China’s willingness to re-engage diplomatically.

Re-engagement with China is also driven by Canada’s desire to diversify export markets after U.S. tariffs and President Donald Trump’s controversial comments suggesting Canada could become the 51st U.S. state.

China Signals Strategic Autonomy

Chinese state media has emphasized Canada’s “strategic autonomy” in navigating relations with Beijing. An editorial in China Daily advised Ottawa to avoid aligning too closely with U.S. policy:

“By working with Beijing to manage their differences appropriately, Ottawa can have Canada’s interests better served.”

The message highlights that China expects Canada to balance relations between Washington and Beijing to maintain economic access and political goodwill.

Broader Trade Context

The decline in Canadian exports mirrors a broader slump in U.S. shipments to China, which fell 14.6% in 2025, according to Chinese customs data. Analysts note that these shifts reflect global trade tensions, rising tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical frictions affecting North American exporters.

Canada’s trade with China includes key commodities such as canola, lumber, minerals, and energy products, all of which are sensitive to tariffs, regulatory restrictions, and diplomatic disputes. The drop in exports is likely to be a key discussion point during Carney’s visit.

Outlook for Canada-China Relations

Mark Carney’s trip is being closely watched as a potential turning point in Canada-China relations, with economic, diplomatic, and strategic stakes intertwined. Restoring a cooperative framework could help Canada stabilize its exports, manage geopolitical risks, and enhance North American trade diversification.