In the months leading up to the Bihar Assembly elections, the Opposition alliance had projected an image of unity, with Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) presenting themselves as partners in a common battle against the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In August, at the height of the campaign against the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, the camaraderie between the two parties was on full display. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav shared the stage during the Vote Adhikar Rally, with Yadav even driving the jeep during the procession. At the rallies, Yadav affectionately referred to Gandhi as his “bade bhai” (elder brother), underscoring the message of solidarity, while both leaders spoke passionately about a united opposition resisting what they termed governmental overreach.

However, in the weeks since, that visible warmth appears to have cooled. According to insiders, a mix of bitterness over seat-sharing arrangements and underwhelming internal assessments by the Congress party regarding its performance in the ongoing polls has created a subtle wedge between the two leaders. These tensions have reportedly also influenced Gandhi’s campaigning schedule in Bihar. A Congress functionary, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that with barely ten days left before polling concludes, Gandhi and Yadav are now likely to share the stage only once more, possibly on November 9. This would form part of the four days Gandhi is expected to spend campaigning in the state over the next two weeks.

Observers report that while Gandhi and Yadav remain civil in public interactions, the earlier warmth and spontaneous camaraderie evident in joint rallies has diminished. “They are civil to each other and greeted each other, but the earlier warmth was missing,” said a Congress functionary.

The backdrop to this shift lies in the complex dynamics of the Opposition Grand Alliance, which spent weeks negotiating seat-sharing arrangements and still faces “friendly fights” in a dozen constituencies. The alliance’s stated objective is to prevent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar from securing a fifth consecutive term. Nevertheless, internal surveys and analyses conducted by Congress suggest potential vulnerabilities in roughly 25 of the 60-odd seats the party is contesting. Factors cited include the absence of a coherent campaign theme, fewer rallies, and inadequate coordination among alliance partners, despite the broader anti-incumbency sentiment that the alliance hopes will work in its favor.

The challenges of alliance management have been visible in several constituencies. For instance, in Bachhwara in Begusarai, Congress candidate Shiv Prakash Garib Das faces a three-way contest against NDA’s Surendra Meheta and Communist Party of India (CPI) candidate Abdesh Kumar Rai, who narrowly lost in 2020 by just 484 votes. Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra recently addressed a rally in the area, highlighting the competitive environment and the potential need for last-minute adjustments to candidate positions. CPI(ML) leader Dipankar Bhattacharya, a key strategist for the Opposition alliance, acknowledged that withdrawal negotiations are ongoing in several constituencies to reduce vote-splitting, emphasizing that coordination remains a work in progress even after the October 23 nomination withdrawal deadline.

While both parties publicly dismiss any suggestion of discord, with Congress general secretary Avinash Pande stating that Gandhi and Yadav “are on very good terms” and RJD spokesperson Mritunjay Tiwari emphasizing Gandhi’s focus on broader issues, political observers note the growing divergence in messaging. At rallies, Yadav has concentrated on employment, youth issues, and state-level concerns, whereas Gandhi has addressed national and international issues, including critiques of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, allegations of electoral malpractice, and discussions of crony capitalism. The difference in campaign focus has allowed the BJP to highlight and amplify the perception of friction within the alliance.

A BJP leader, Nikhil Anand, claimed that the contradiction between Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav first surfaced during the Vote Chori Yatra and continues to influence campaign dynamics. According to him, “Rahul Gandhi was absent from the Chief Minister declaration as well as the manifesto release. It proves that RJD is very much uncomfortable with Rahul Gandhi’s presence in the Bihar campaign. Tejashwi considers Rahul Gandhi a liability and hindrance in fulfilling his political ambition.”

The seat-sharing negotiations themselves were fraught with challenges. The six major parties in the alliance spent over 25 days hammering out an arrangement, but the deal was not publicly announced immediately. Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot intervened by meeting the Yadav family, while state in-charge leaders Krishna Allavaru, Rajesh Ram, and Shakeel Ahmed Khan faced dissent and frustration from party cadres over the distribution of tickets. According to a Congress insider, the alliance leadership had hoped the Vote Adhikar Rally would generate momentum, but internal friction and dissatisfaction regarding ticket allocation may have blunted its impact. “Lalu Yadav and family are still old-fashioned and relied on familiar hands who knew how much to push,” the source said.

As the elections enter their final stretch, the relationship between Gandhi and Yadav will likely be closely watched, both for its impact on campaign effectiveness and its broader implications for the Opposition’s cohesion. Analysts suggest that while ideological alignment exists on major issues such as anti-incumbency and social justice, operational disagreements over campaign strategy and candidate selection could affect the alliance’s electoral performance in tightly contested constituencies.

In essence, the Bihar elections are not just a test of political popularity but also a test of alliance management, intra-party coordination, and strategic messaging. The evolving dynamics between Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav provide a microcosm of the challenges facing opposition parties in India’s complex multi-party system, where the balance between unity and individual party interests can significantly influence outcomes.