As the world gears up for COP30 in Brazil next week, the Brazilian COP30 and Azerbaijan COP29 Presidencies have released the long-anticipated report titled ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3 Trillion’, charting a path to deliver $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries from all international sources by 2035. The report outlines key strategies for scaling climate finance and highlights the urgency of mobilising funds to support developing nations in mitigating climate change, adapting to its impacts, and transitioning toward low-carbon economies.

The release of the roadmap is particularly significant for India, which had been a vocal critic of the COP29 finance deal agreed upon in Baku last year. The COP29 agreement had set a climate finance goal of “at least $300 billion per year by 2035” and introduced the Baku to Belém framework to eventually achieve the $1.3 trillion target. However, India had highlighted multiple concerns with the original plan, noting that the proposed sum for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) was insufficient and would arrive too late to meet urgent climate needs. The roadmap now attempts to address these gaps through a structured approach called the 5Rs: Replenishing, Rebalancing, Rechanneling, Revamping, and Reshaping.

Key Elements of the Roadmap

During a press briefing on Wednesday, COP30 President Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev emphasised that the roadmap was prepared at the request of the Presidencies and is not open for negotiation. While the report lays out pathways to reach the $1.3 trillion goal, experts have cautioned that this procedural approach—focusing on planning rather than immediate funding—could weaken the implementation of the roadmap if countries do not actively follow through.

Under the roadmap, developed countries are expected to publish forward-looking climate finance plans by the end of 2026. The UN’s Standing Committee on Finance would then aggregate these plans in 2027 to assess progress toward the overall target. However, the report does not specify how much of the $300 billion immediate goal should come from public funds, or what proportion should be delivered as grants or concessional financing, particularly for adaptation and loss-and-damage initiatives.

1. Replenishing

The Replenishing action focuses on increasing the delivery of grants and concessional climate finance from developed countries. This includes contributions through both bilateral and multilateral channels. The roadmap stresses the importance of replenishing multilateral climate funds, with a goal to at least triple annual outflows from 2022 levels by 2030. This effort is seen as critical to scaling up the $300 billion component of the overall $1.3 trillion objective.

2. Rebalancing

Rebalancing addresses the debt burdens faced by developing countries, which can hinder their capacity to invest in climate action. The roadmap recommends collaboration between creditor nations, the International Monetary Fund, and multilateral development banks to implement climate-resilient debt clauses, debt-for-nature or debt-for-climate swaps, and other innovative financial mechanisms. These measures aim to reduce vulnerability and create fiscal space for climate investments in developing nations.

3. Rechanneling

Rechanneling involves enhancing the availability and quality of catalytic financial instruments. Multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, public development banks, and climate funds are encouraged to expand the provision of guarantees, foreign exchange hedging, insurance products, securitisation platforms, and risk-bearing capital, including early-stage equity investments. The goal is to unlock private capital flows and improve the financial ecosystem for climate projects.

4. Revamping

The Revamping action calls for integrating climate, nature, and just-transition objectives into national planning, budgeting, and investment frameworks. Governments are urged to adopt a whole-of-government, whole-of-economy approach, ensuring that climate priorities are embedded in policy and financial decision-making at all levels.

5. Reshaping

Finally, Reshaping involves reforming financial structures to enable enhanced capital flows. The roadmap recommends that national supervisors and central banks gradually embed climate stress-testing requirements into supervisory reviews and risk management obligations, strengthening the resilience of the financial sector against climate-related risks.

Short-Term Implementation Measures

To translate the roadmap into tangible action, the COP Presidencies will convene an independent expert group tasked with refining data and developing concrete financing pathways to achieve the $1.3 trillion target by 2035. The group’s first report is expected by October 2026. Throughout 2026, dialogue sessions with Parties and stakeholders will be organised to review progress on the 5R action fronts and assess medium- to long-term strategies.

Additionally, developed countries could collaborate on a delivery plan for the $300 billion immediate goal, providing clarity on contributions for adaptation, access, and other elements of the NCQG. Based on this information, the Standing Committee on Finance would present an aggregate view of pathways toward achieving the various targets by 2027.

The roadmap also calls on major private-sector actors to participate in climate finance tracking. Specifically, the world’s 100 largest companies by market capitalisation could report annually on their contributions toward nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and national adaptation plans (NAPs). Similarly, the 100 largest institutional investors by assets under management could report on their contributions to climate objectives.

Expert Perspectives

Experts have praised the roadmap for its ambition but also noted potential shortcomings. Dhruba Purkayastha, advisor at ORF Middle East and visiting faculty at IIM Calcutta, suggested that the plan might have focused more effectively on optimising the agreed $300 billion, leveraging concessional finance to mobilise private capital rather than aiming for $1.3 trillion in annual flows. Purkayastha argued that attention to the global stock of capital, estimated at over $200 trillion, could enable more effective long-term investments in low-carbon transitions, carbon dioxide removal, and climate resilience.

Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, highlighted the significance of the roadmap in turning commitments into practical, inclusive climate finance action. “The roadmap shows how, by working together, we can scale up climate finance towards USD 1.3 trillion a year by 2035, helping developing countries meet their climate goals,” he said. Stiell emphasised that effective climate finance could generate jobs, protect communities, and drive innovation, delivering benefits for the global economy.

Melanie Robinson, Global Director of Climate, Economics, and Finance at the World Resources Institute, underscored the roadmap’s pragmatic approach. “The Baku to Belém Roadmap turns a promise made at COP29 into a plan. Its value lies in combining pragmatism with scale and systems change, shifting focus from modest public funding to mobilising larger flows from private investors.”

Global Context and NDC Updates

The roadmap’s release coincides with significant developments in global climate action. The European Union recently confirmed its 2035 NDC, aiming for a 66.25–72.5% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels, with up to 5% of reductions expected from carbon offsets outside the EU. The EU also reaffirmed its long-term goal of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.

China formally submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC on November 3, 2025, committing to a 7–10% reduction in economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions from peak levels and increasing non-fossil fuel energy consumption to over 30% by 2025. President Xi Jinping called for global adoption of low-carbon growth strategies, emphasising the role of clean energy in accelerating economic transformation, creating jobs, and driving innovation.

India’s NDC update for the 2035 period is pending. Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav stated that the update will be announced after consultations are concluded. Meanwhile, the United States, the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, has formally withdrawn from the Paris Agreement.

Looking Ahead

The Baku to Belém Roadmap sets an ambitious course for global climate finance, focusing on both long-term scale and structural reforms to unlock private and public capital. Its emphasis on planning, coordination, and systems-level changes reflects the increasing recognition that climate finance is not just about immediate sums but about creating sustainable mechanisms to support developing countries.

As COP30 convenes in Brazil, stakeholders will closely examine the roadmap, its implementation pathways, and the accompanying NDC updates from major emitters. The success of the roadmap will depend on the willingness of developed countries to act decisively, the engagement of private investors, and the continued advocacy of developing nations to secure adequate and timely funding for climate action.

By outlining concrete action fronts while also highlighting the need for broad stakeholder engagement, the Baku to Belém Roadmap aims to move climate finance from promises to practical outcomes, setting the stage for meaningful progress in global efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change.