A year after a massive student-led uprising shook Bangladesh, the country’s political landscape remains precarious, with its two most prominent leaders sidelined at a critical juncture. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is in self-imposed exile in India after being sentenced to death for “crimes against humanity” by a tribunal in Dhaka, while her long-time rival, Khaleda Zia, the two-time Prime Minister and BNP chairperson, is gravely ill in a Dhaka hospital. With elections tentatively planned by April 2026, Bangladesh faces uncertainty over leadership, electoral timelines, and the balance of political power.

Khaleda Zia’s Health Crisis

Begum Khaleda Zia, 80, has been hospitalized since November 23 after developing a severe chest infection affecting her heart and lungs. Doctors describe her condition as “very critical,” sparking intense concern among her supporters and party officials. Zia, who had returned to Dhaka in May 2025 after traveling abroad for medical treatment, had been released from house arrest following the mass protests in August 2024.

Her deteriorating health has created a leadership vacuum within the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), traditionally the primary opposition to Hasina’s Awami League. The BNP, which boycotted the last two elections, now appears poised to take the lead in the post-Hasina political order. Yet, with Khaleda Zia incapacitated, her son and designated successor, Tarique Rahman, remains in London, adding to the uncertainty.

Rahman, acting chairman of the BNP since 2008, stated on social media that his return to Bangladesh “is not entirely” in his control. Hours later, the interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, clarified that there were no restrictions on his travel, signaling a potential opening for him to assume leadership responsibilities in the coming weeks.

Election Uncertainty

The interim administration under Yunus is managing the country in a delicate political environment. While the government has suggested that national elections could occur in April 2026, the BNP has demanded that elections be held sooner—either in December 2025 or February 2026. As of now, there is no consensus on the timetable or the electoral process.

The absence of the two dominant figures, combined with the BNP’s leadership challenges, has created space for emerging political forces. Students who spearheaded the 2024 uprising have formed a new party, advocating for constitutional reforms. At the same time, religious hardliners are gaining influence, notably the Jamaat-e-Islami, which has achieved success in recent student elections and conducted mass rallies in Dhaka. Analysts warn that these groups could act as catalysts, reshaping the political dynamics against liberal and moderate forces.

Human Rights Watch observes that the hopes of protesters who faced lethal violence remain largely unfulfilled. The interim administration, it notes, is struggling to navigate an unreformed security sector, rising influence of religious hardliners, and entrenched political rivalries. Citizens like Mosharraf Hossain, who lost his daughter to the protests, express frustration over the lack of tangible progress, highlighting the enduring challenges of achieving political freedom and reform decades after Bangladesh’s independence in 1971.

Sheikh Hasina in Exile

Sheikh Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh uninterrupted for 15 years before being ousted, remains in India. Her sentence for “crimes against humanity,” alongside similar sentences for her son Sajeeb Wazed and daughter Saima Wazed, has been widely condemned by her family as politically motivated. Sajeeb Wazed has described the tribunal as a “kangaroo court” aimed at preventing Hasina’s family from participating in future elections.

Hasina, daughter of Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has long been a dominant figure in the country’s politics. Her father, assassinated in a military coup in 1975 along with much of his family, had been revered as the “Father of the Nation,” though his post-independence policies and governance style remain contested. Following the 2024 protests, Hasina’s legacy has come under renewed scrutiny: his image was removed from national currency, and his title as “Father of the Nation” was officially revoked.

Hasina’s stay in India has also been a point of tension between the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Yunus’ administration in Dhaka. Despite the strained relations, India continues to serve as a political sanctuary, allowing Hasina to maintain contact with supporters and strategize her return.

Potential Political Outcomes

Bangladesh now faces a unique political scenario with both Hasina and Zia sidelined. Key questions dominate the political discourse:

• Will Khaleda Zia recover enough to influence BNP strategy ahead of elections?
• Will Tarique Rahman return from London to assume leadership?
• How will new political forces, including student-led parties and Islamist groups, shape the electoral landscape?

The April 2026 election timeline remains tentative, and the interim government faces the challenge of ensuring a free, fair, and peaceful election amidst factional rivalries and potential unrest. Analysts caution that without stable leadership from either of the country’s traditional power centers, Bangladesh risks further political fragmentation and the rise of alternative forces that could challenge the liberal-democratic framework established since independence.

Conclusion

A year after the dramatic student uprising, Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture. With Sheikh Hasina in exile and Khaleda Zia gravely ill, the country is operating without its two most familiar political faces. The interim administration, under Muhammad Yunus, is navigating a complex landscape of demands for elections, rising religious influence, and reformist pressures from new political actors. The months ahead will be decisive in determining whether Bangladesh can stabilize its political system and deliver on the promises of the 2024 uprising, or whether it will face a prolonged period of uncertainty and political realignment.

The situation remains fluid, with the health of Khaleda Zia and the return of Tarique Rahman being pivotal factors that could shape the next chapter in Bangladesh’s political history.