Patna: The stage is set for the counting of votes in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, scheduled for Friday, November 14, as political parties gear up for the verdict that will determine the next government in the state. With a voter turnout of nearly 67%, the highest in Bihar since independence, and more than 7.4 crore voters casting their ballots for over 2,600 candidates, the outcome is being closely watched both nationally and within the state.

The Election Commission (EC) has mobilized extensive security and logistical arrangements to ensure a smooth counting process. The counting will take place across 46 centers in 38 districts, with a two-tier security system in place. Central paramilitary forces guard the inner perimeter of counting centers, while the state police manage the outer perimeter. Additionally, CCTV surveillance and the presence of central EC observers and candidate-appointed agents aim to ensure transparency. Voting machines remain sealed in strongrooms with a double-lock system, and the model code of conduct remains in force until November 16.

Exit Polls and Predictions

Exit polls, though varied, largely point towards a clear mandate for the ruling NDA, an alliance led by JD(U) and BJP, with support from smaller regional players such as LJP (RV), HAM(S), and RLM. The Axis My India survey predicts the NDA securing 121-141 seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), including RJD, Congress, CPI(ML)-Liberation, VIP, and IIP, is projected to secure 98-118 seats, potentially falling short of the majority mark of 122.

Interestingly, Axis My India projects the RJD emerging as the single-largest party, with 67-76 seats, reminiscent of its performance in 2020, where it secured 75 seats but the coalition fell short of forming the government. JD(U) is expected to improve its tally to 56-62 seats, while BJP could secure 50-56 seats, indicating a potential revival of Nitish Kumar’s party in comparison to previous elections.

Other exit polls provide a broader range of predictions. Chanakya predicts 148-172 seats for the NDA, People’s Pulseforecasts 133-159 seats, and JVC anticipates 135-150 seats. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s debut party Jan Suraaj is expected to win no more than five seats, reflecting the challenges of new entrants in a state dominated by established alliances.

However, a note of caution comes from historical trends, as exit polls have often been inaccurate in Bihar. In the 2020 assembly elections, most surveys predicted a Mahagathbandhan victory, which ultimately did not materialize, demonstrating the unpredictability of electoral forecasting in the state.

Allegations and Opposition Concerns

Ahead of counting, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has raised concerns regarding potential electoral malpractices, dismissing exit polls as misleading and asserting that the Mahagathbandhan will secure a “thumping majority”. The opposition has specifically alleged irregularities in the Sasaram constituency, claiming that EVMs were moved into a counting center without prior notice and that camera feeds were allegedly switched off.

Officials, including Rohtas district magistrate Udita Singh, have refuted these allegations, clarifying that the truck in question contained empty steel boxes, and the movement was logged in the presence of candidates and supporters. Despite these assurances, Tejashwi has urged party workers and candidates to remain alert, vigilant, and prepared for any unconstitutional activities during the counting process.

NDA Preparations and Confidence

On the other side, the NDA leadership appears confident of victory, interpreting exit polls as a reflection of ground reality. Union Minister Amit Shah and others have attributed the predicted success to the influence of Prime Minister Modi and the governance record of Nitish Kumar. Preparations for celebrations have already begun, with reports of 501 kilograms of laddoos being ordered in Patna for post-result festivities. Additionally, JD(U) candidates such as Anant Kumar Singh have arranged tents, chairs, and decorations at their homes in anticipation of victory celebrations.

Meanwhile, CM Nitish Kumar has been seen visiting places of worship to express gratitude for what has been described as peaceful and undisputed voting, reflecting a focus on public reassurance ahead of the final results.

High Stakes and Public Attention

The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections are shaping up to be a high-stakes political contest with intense scrutiny from both the electorate and the national political establishment. The combination of high voter turnout, diverse exit poll predictions, and opposition allegations has placed the Election Commission on alert, with robust measures to maintain transparency and fairness.

For the citizens of Bihar, the results will determine whether Nitish Kumar continues as the state’s longest-serving CMor whether the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan manages an upset, potentially reshaping the political landscape in the state. The countdown to Friday, November 14, is now on, with both laddoos and vigilance marking the eve of one of Bihar’s most closely watched elections in recent history.